The built environment is already facing severe consequences related to climate change. Considering the durability of structures, the increase of carbon-dioxide (CO₂) concentration and changes on temperature and relative humidity may accelerate carbonation-induced corrosion, thus affecting the service life of reinforced concrete structures. Several studies have assessed the potential effects of climate change on concrete carbonation for specific locations, and this requires to convert climate databases, which come in various spatial resolutions, to scales that are suitable for the purpose of the study. However, there is not a consistent methodology for using climate projections databases at various spatial scales (e.g., city, district, region, country, etc.). Hence, the main goal of this research is to propose an approach allowing for multi-region assessment of carbonation of reinforced concrete structures, under changing climate. The proposed methodology is based on a carbonation model that takes into account the effects of climate change over time. Moreover, procedures and recommendations are provided to reduce errors in lifetime assessment, such as selection of climate change scenarios, choice of simulation chains, and bias correction. The use of the proposed approach is illustrated by computing carbonation depths for several places located in three districts in Portugal: Porto (north), Lisboa (Middle), and Faro (South). The overall results allow to conclude that: (i) specific climate conditions inside a district, namely temperature and relative humidity, modify the carbonation depths (e.g.: a variation of 19 % was obtained for the carbonation depth in the district of Lisbon); (ii) bias-correction should be systematically carried out to avoid errors in the assessments (for example, in the district of Faro, the time to initiate corrosion was over estimated by about 7 years without bias correction); and (iii) climate change could accelerate concrete carbonation of structures in the different locations considered in Portugal (under the most pessimistic climate scenario, the time to corrosion initiation was below 100 years for all locations).

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Over the Earth’s history, the climate has changed considerably due to natural processes affecting directly the earth. In the last century, these changes have perpetrated global warming. Carbon dioxide is the main trigger for climate change as it represents approximately up to 80% of the total greenhouse gas emissions. Climate change and concrete carbonation accelerate the corrosion process increasing the infrastructure maintenance and repair costs of hundreds of billions of dollars annually. The concrete carbonation process is based on the presence of carbon dioxide and moisture, which lowers the pH value to around 9, in which the protective oxide layer surrounding the reinforcing steel bars is penetrated and corrosion takes place. Predicting the effective retained service life and the need for repairs of the concrete structure subjected to carbonation requires carbon dioxide forecasting in order to increase the lifespan of the bridge. In this paper, short term memory process models were used to analyze a historical carbon dioxide database, and specifically to fill in the missing database values and perform predictions. Various models were used and the accuracy of the models was compared. We found that the proposed Stochastic Markovian Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (MSARIMA) model provides R2 value of 98.8%, accuracy in forecasting value of 89.7% and a variance in the value of the individual errors of 0.12. When compared with the CO2 database values, the proposed MSARIMA model provides a variance value of −0.1 and a coefficient of variation value of −8.0e−4.@en

The report presents the work of the Joint Research Centre (JRC) scientific network on adaptation of structural design to climate change addressing the expected implications of a changing climate on the corrosion of structures. The work first outlines recent EU policies supporting the sustainability and climate resilience of infrastructure and buildings. It is highlighted how the construction sector is encouraged to adopt more sustainable and circular economic practices, extend the lifetime of buildings and strive for better performance of buildings and infrastructure throughout their life cycle. The ongoing action plan to adapt European standards to a changing climate is emphasised. The report evaluates the expected variations in climatic factors causing corrosion, provides a state-of-the-art review on climate change induced corrosion of reinforced concrete and steel structures, and presents recent works on the corrosion impact, the costs and effectiveness of adaptation strategies. The effects of corrosion on the seismic performance of structures is addressed as well. In conclusion, this report presents the scientific and technical background to study the expected implications of climate change on the corrosion of structures. The work intends to stimulate debate on the subject, identify further research needs, and serve as a basis for the development of further work relevant to the adaptation to climate change of European standards and policies. @en