Future material demand and associated environmental impacts for aluminum used in global PV systems

Abstract

As the global energy sector shifts towards electrification to achieve a net-zero future, the demand for photovoltaic (PV) systems is expected to surge. By 2050, an estimated 63.4 TW of installed PV capacity will be required, with annual additions reaching up to 4.5 TW, to help limit global temperature rise to below 2°C. This significant expansion will substantially increase the demand for aluminum, a key material in PV systems. This study presents a material flow model to analyze aluminum demand and its environmental impacts in global PV systems from 2020 to 2050. The model captures the flow of aluminum through module frames, mounting systems, and inverters, while also considering the influence of various parameters such as PV efficiency, aluminum intensity of components, component lifetimes, and recycling rates. In the baseline scenario, cumulative aluminum demand is projected to reach 830.98 mega tonnes (Mt) by 2050. However, through advancements in PV efficiency, reduction in material intensity, extension of component lifetimes, and improvement in aluminum recycling rates, the demand could potentially be reduced to 568.65 Mt.

Despite these mitigation strategies, the rapid growth in PV deployment poses significant challenges for aluminum supply, as global aluminum production is projected to be only 176 Mt by 2050, suggesting substantial supply pressures. Moreover, aluminum production is both energy- and carbon-intensive, contributing significantly to global greenhouse gas emissions. The cumulative emissions associated with aluminum use in PV systems are projected to reach 3534 Mt CO₂eq from 2020 to 2050, highlighting the urgent need for decarbonization in aluminum production. The study emphasizes the critical importance of developing a closed-loop aluminum recycling system for PV components to form a circular economy, which could reduce primary aluminum demand and associated emissions. By adopting a multi-faceted approach, including improvements in technology, materials, and recycling processes, the PV industry can mitigate its environmental impact and support the global transition towards sustainable energy.