Seismic Risk Assessment For Geothermal Projects

Abstract

Geothermal energy can be a great solution for the downscaling fossil fuel society, but it can potentially lead to seismic hazards. A doublet system, with a cold water injection well and a hot water production well, alters the stress situation in the subsurface, which can result in (micro)fracturing and fault reactivation. Even in water filled reservoirs, aquifers, with relatively good permeabilities, the acting in-situ stress on already existing fault can be changed such that there can be a seismic hazard. The three dominant phenomena that influence the fault reactivation and are triggered by geothermal water injection and production are the direct pore pressure change, poro-elastic stress change and thermo-elastic stress change. To predict and subsequently diminish or limit the seismic hazards in geothermal operations, Seismic Risk Analysis (SRA) are to be completed before such operations can take place in an often seismic risky location, like densely populated areas. In the current (Dutch) geothermal environment mainly three SRA’s are used; “Methodiek voor risicoanalyse ontrent geinduceerde beving door gaswinning” by the Staatstoezicht op de Mijnen (SodM), “Defining the Framework for Seismic Hazard Assessment in Geothermal Projects V0.1” by Q-con/IF-technology [6] and an Excel-model created by TNO/Geomech. By investigating and reviewing these three SRA’s in this thesis their shortcoming and limitations are exposed, for example their lack of physical foundation and explanatory results. From the foundation of the currently excising SRA’s a new alternative SRA, which corresponds in some steps with the older SRA’s, is created in this thesis. In order to successfully finish the new SRA one of the three steps should be completed, starting with SRA Step 1. In this first step of the new SRA a new Physical Screening Model (PSM) is created. When completing the SRA an indication of what type of seismic monitoring there should be done during production. This PSM is a fairly quick and simple in its use but provides sufficient informative data to investigate the seismic hazard for most geothermal operations in the Netherlands. In four different steps in the PSM, the potential reactivation of faults over the whole reservoir during production will be evaluated. With the spatio-temporal evolution of ΔP, Δσporo, ΔT (PSM Step 1) this model can predict fault reactivation at any place and time inside the reservoir, while it can also look at which parameter dominated this reactivation. In this thesis the physical background and results of the PSM will be explained step by step. Eventually there are three final results from the PSM; a Mohr plot that predicts if certain faults (at certain locations) are stable or not and the maximum Moment magnitude (Mw) in combinations with the Peak Ground Velocity (PGV), which predict the severity of a possible event. Sensitivity analyses and case studies done with the PSM in this thesis show the influence of dominating parameters, like permeability and injection rate, and what results can be expected when using this model.