A multi-objective optimization and multi-attribute decision-making analysis for technical-thermodynamic-economic evaluation considering the rock damage on production performance of hot dry rock geothermal resources

Abstract

In the long-term mining of geothermal resources in hot dry rock (HDR), the change of thermal stress and pore pressure will increase fracture conductivity evolution, further improving production performance. The optimization and decision-making of the development scheme based on the impact of damage from fractures have yet to be reported. The damage to fractures is essential in designing and adjusting geothermal resource development schemes, particularly in selecting optimal schemes. Therefore, the production performances of HDR resources under different parameters are analyzed to establish a database. Then, minimizing flow resistance, maximizing net power, and maximizing economic benefits are set as optimization goals. Various injection-mining parameters and fracture characteristics are treated as decision variables. Multi-objective optimization and multi-attribute decision analysis is conducted to obtain optimal schemes. Finally, optimal schemes are evaluated and compared, considering damage and non-damage scenarios. Results show that the NSGA-II algorithm is more suitable for optimizing geothermal development questions. Net power and economic benefits of the optimal scheme considering damage increase by 45.84 % and 21.35 % compared to the control scheme with damage. For the non-damage scenario, the above values increased by 31.55 % and 5.15 %, respectively. Compared to not considering the damage, higher mass flow and well spacing of optimal scheme can be selected for the case when damaged. Moreover, the parametric design of the optimal scheme becomes more conservative as the production cycle increases.