Grid financing strategies in the death spiral: a simulation based analysis of grid tariff designs

Abstract

Renewable energies, especially photovoltaic (PV), have started a trend towards a decentralization of energy systems. With decreasing levelized costs of energy of new renewable energies, self-consumption concepts become increasingly attractive and have even reached grid parity in some countries already. So called "prosumers" (households that are producers and consumers at the same time) start to replace grid consumers, conducting self-consumption with their locally produced electricity by the PV plants. Since complete autarky cannot be reached with a PV plant for a household, prosumers still consume electricity from the main grid. This on-going diffusion of self-consumption concepts is significantly influenced by the interplay of network externalities within the system, such as learning from peers, altering the perceived utility by households of the investment into decentral generation. The increasing penetration of PV significantly contributes to the creation of a more sustainable power supply in Europe and is considered and supported in many nations by governmental energy strategies. Nevertheless, such decentralization dynamics also lead to multiple challenges in the energy system. New investors enter the energy market, utility companies are forced to adjust their business models and grid operators face technical as well as financial challenges. The presented paper focusses on the financial challenges of grid operators caused by decentralization trends of the electricity system.