Operational Impact of Ammonia as Marine Fuel

A MILP model for an Ammonia-Powered Shipping Network

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Abstract

The consequences of climate change are becoming more and more visible. A significant cause of this is CO2 emissions; the shipping sector is responsible for 3% of global CO2 emissions. As a result, the Fourth IMO GHG Study 2020 presents pathways to reduce the GHG emission of the shipping industry by 50% by 2050. Recent IMO goals have overtaken this to reduce net emissions to zero by that year.

As a result, research in renewable energy sources has grown in significant interest, offering a wide range of potential solutions. Recently, (green) ammonia (NH3) has been added to these pools, as it is carbon-free and has a higher storage density than liquid or pressurized hydrogen. However, when comparing ammonia to the current conservative fuels, its energy density is still not at the same level, and more fuel volume would be required to deliver the same amount of energy. There are two ways to address this challenge. More frequent bunkering or larger volumes for the fuel tanks on board at the cost of cargo space and thus income. This is a difficult choice to make in the pre-design as it depends on the choices of other owners as well.

This report investigates the impact of a fuel switch to ammonia on the ship design and bunkering pattern based on the current operational profile of 1025 seagoing ships. A mixed integer linear programming model will establish the optimal fuel tank volume and bunkering strategy for each vessel. This model considers rerouting for trips that are not feasible and two approaches for the bunker strategy. Besides, a port model will establish the ammonia bunker pricing based on the resulting demand in each port. The estimated ammonia bunker prices are implemented in the bunker strategy model. This is repeated till a balance is found. The two models represent an Ammonia Powered Shipping Network considering a homogeneous shipping market. The report presents the results and key factors influencing the balance between the fuel tank volume and the sailing range. The simulated bunker strategies show different possibilities for finding this balance and reducing the operational impact caused by the transition to ammonia.