Impact of large-scale hydrogen electrification and retrofitting of natural gas infrastructure on the European power system

Abstract

In this paper, we aim to analyse the impact of hydrogen production decarbonisation and electrification scenarios on the infrastructure development, generation mix, CO₂ emissions, and system costs of the European power system, considering the retrofit of the natural gas infrastructure. We define a reference scenario for the European power system in 2050 and use scenario variants to obtain additional insights by breaking down the effects of different assumptions. The scenarios were analysed using the European electricity market model COMPETES, including a proposed formulation to consider retrofitting existing natural gas networks to transport hydrogen instead of methane. According to the results, 60% of the EU's hydrogen demand is electrified, and approximately 30% of the total electricity demand will be to cover that hydrogen demand. The primary source of this electricity would be non-polluting technologies. Moreover, hydrogen flexibility significantly increases variable renewable energy investment and production, and reduces CO₂ emissions. In contrast, relying on only electricity transmission increases costs and CO₂ emissions, emphasising the importance of investing in an H₂ network through retrofitting or new pipelines. In conclusion, this paper shows that electrifying hydrogen is necessary and cost-effective to achieve the EU's objective of reducing long-term emissions.