Case Study: Zutphen

Estimates of levee system reliability

Book chapter (2017)

Authors

K. Roscoe Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk - CEG
Research Group
Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk (CEG) (TU Delft)
Copyright: © 2017 K. Roscoe
More Info
expand_more

Published Date

2017

Language

English

Reuse Rights

Other than for strictly personal use, it is not permitted to download, forward or distribute the text or part of it, without the consent of the author(s) and/or copyright holder(s), unless the work is under an open content license such as Creative Commons.

Faculty

Civil Engineering & Geosciences

Department

Hydraulic Engineering

Research Group

Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk

Abstract

Estimates of levee system
reliability can conflict with experience and intuition. For example, a very
high failure probability may be computed while no evidence of failure has been
observed, or a very low failure probability when signs of failure have been
detected. This conflict results in skepticism about the computed failure
probabilities and an (understandable) unwillingness to make important management
decisions based upon them. Bayesian networks (BNs) are useful in these circumstances
because they allow us to use observations to improve our reliability estimates quantitatively.

Files

Kothuis_Kok_2017_25.pdf
(pdf | 0.246 Mb)
Unknown license