Improving flood forecasting using an input correction method in urban models in poorly gauged areas

Journal article (2020)

Authors

Maria Clara Fava Universidade de São Paulo
Maurizio Mazzoleni Uppsala University
Narumi Abe Universidade de São Paulo
Eduardo M. Mendiondo Universidade de São Paulo
D.P. Solomatine IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, Water Resources - CEG
Research Group
Water Resources (CEG) (TU Delft)
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Published Date

2020

Language

English

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Faculty

Civil Engineering & Geosciences

Department

Water Management

Research Group

Water Resources

Abstract

Poorly monitored catchments could pose a challenge in the provision of accurate flood predictions by hydrological models, especially in urbanized areas subject to heavy rainfall events. Data assimilation techniques have been widely used in hydraulic and hydrological models for model updating (typically updating model states) to provide a more reliable prediction. However, in the case of nonlinear systems, such procedures are quite complex and time-consuming, making them unsuitable for real-time forecasting. In this study, we present a data assimilation procedure, which corrects the uncertain inputs (rainfall), rather than states, of an urban catchment model by assimilating water-level data. Five rainfall correction methods are proposed and their effectiveness is explored under different scenarios for assimilating data from one or multiple sensors. The methodology is adopted in the city of São Carlos, Brazil. The results show a significant improvement in the simulation accuracy.