The near- to mid-term outlook for concentrating solar power

mostly cloudy, chance of sun

Journal article (2021)

Authors

Johan Lilliestam University of Potsdam, Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies
Lana Ollier University of Potsdam
Mercè Labordena ETH Zürich
Stefan Pfenninger ETH Zürich
Richard Thonig University of Potsdam
Affiliation
External organisation
More Info
expand_more

Published Date

2021

Language

English

Reuse Rights

Other than for strictly personal use, it is not permitted to download, forward or distribute the text or part of it, without the consent of the author(s) and/or copyright holder(s), unless the work is under an open content license such as Creative Commons.

Affiliation

External organisation

Abstract

The history of concentrating solar power (CSP) is characterized by a boom-bust pattern caused by policy support changes. Following the 2014–2016 bust phase, the combination of Chinese support and several low-cost projects triggered a new boom phase. We investigate the near- to mid-term cost, industry, market and policy outlook for the global CSP sector and show that CSP costs have decreased strongly and approach cost-competitiveness with new conventional generation. Industry has been strengthened through the entry of numerous new companies. However, the project pipeline is thin: no project broke ground in 2019 and only four projects are under construction in 2020. The only remaining large support scheme, in China, has been canceled. Without additional support soon creating a new market, the value chain may collapse and recent cost and technological advances may be undone. If policy support is renewed, however, the global CSP sector is prepared for a bright future.