Water sector in the face of a societal collapse

Abstract

This research examines the resilience of the water sector after a societal collapse, defined by a significant loss of societal complexity. Through Exploratory Modeling and Analysis, this research evaluates how interconnected infrastructures respond to cascading failures caused by disruptions resulting from a societal collapse. The investigation centers on the interdependencies within the water sector, crucial for its function to abstract, treat, store, and distribute water. The model makes use of disruption curves affecting a network of interdependent components to simulate cascading failures, factoring in variables such as population change and contamination rates.

The research makes use of expert interviews and economic Input-Output tables to devise the dependency matrix, finding that accurate representation of dependencies is critical for meaningful results. The model allows for adaptation strategies, specific to the dependencies of a sector, which demonstrates potential improvements in water sector performance and suggests that adaptive methods may be more effective and less costly than redundancies.

While the model simplifies complex interactions and cannot fully encapsulate the breadth of societal collapse effects, it sheds light on the importance of dynamic dependencies and offers a framework for future studies. These could include integrating more intricate domain-specific models to refine the responses of sectors to disruptions and reduced input. The findings highlight the significance of adaptation as a means to enhance the water sector's resilience.