Long-term planning within complex and dynamic infrastructure systems

Abstract

Infrastructures are subjected to rapidly changing future developments. These future developments, in combination with the complex nature of infrastructure systems, involves assessing multiple variables and their underlying relations. It is hard for asset managers to incorporate this dynamic uncertainty and complexity in their long-term plans. Moreover, it is perceived as challenging to translate the effects from network-level interventions to operation level and thereby develop a shared policy for an infrastructure network in which all stakeholders are involved. Since infrastructures are the backbones of our economies, insight is required in the magnitude and time of occurrence of future developments in order to optimize asset performances. This study proposed a multivariate simulation approach, as a strategic decision-support tool. Insight was created in the challenges associated with the long-term planning within complex and dynamic infrastructure systems to implement interventions on a more substantial and informed basis.