Dynamics of freight transport decarbonization

A simulation study for Brazil

Journal article (2024)

Authors

Verônica Ghisolfi Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
Gisele de Lorena Diniz Chaves Federal University of Santa Catarina
Glaydston Mattos Ribeiro Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
Copyright: © 2024 Verônica Ghisolfi, Lorant Tavasszy, Gonçalo Correia , Gisele de Lorena Diniz Chaves, Glaydston Mattos Ribeiro
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2023.104020
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Published Date

2024

Language

English

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Abstract

Freight transport decarbonization is challenging due to the slow implementation of policies to meet climate goals. This paper analyzes the dynamics of the implementation of freight decarbonization measures. A System Dynamics model was developed and applied to the Brazilian freight system to simulate the use of more sustainable modes and means of transport, including electrification, increased use of biofuels, acceleration of fleet renewal, and modal shift. Significant emission reductions are found in the scenarios combining a shift to alternative modes and a rapid phase-out of diesel vehicles. Even so, the Brazilian freight sector's emission budgets towards limiting global warming to 1.5 °C and 2 °C will be depleted during the current and next decade, respectively. An absolute reduction of carbon emissions before 2050 seems unlikely. Besides confirming the need to study the dynamics of the freight system, the findings corroborate the urgency for stronger actions on freight decarbonization.

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