A Key Skills Framework to Manage Uncertainty in Large Infrastructure Projects

Abstract

Megaprojects are inherently uncertain due to their scale, complexity, and unique, one-time nature, making accurate forecasting challenging. Throughout the project lifecycle (PLC), multiple internal and external stakeholders often perceive uncertainty differently due to their varying interests and values, which can intensify conflicts and fuel uncertainty. Additionally, the growing complexity of these projects—driven by both technical and human factors—poses significant management challenges. Even within the same organization or project, individuals may have differing perceptions of project uncertainties. Despite the importance of addressing uncertainty, current practices focus heavily on risk management, often neglecting uncertainty.
Complex infrastructure projects, as large and transformational megaprojects with significant societal impact, often underperform due to the underestimation of uncertainty. Private organizations, key players in procuring and managing these projects, traditionally emphasize the "Iron Triangle" of project success—budget, timeline, and scope. However, these risk-centric approaches often fail to address the broader complexities, leading to unmanaged uncertainties. Consequently, there is a pressing need for organizations to shift from traditional risk management practices to a more comprehensive perspective that accounts for uncertainty. Effective uncertainty management has become critical for the successful delivery of such projects, yet organizations continue to struggle to make meaningful progress in this area.
While the technical aspects of risk management are well-researched, successful uncertainty management requires organizations to cultivate a culture of awareness and adaptability. This study addresses this gap by emphasizing the need for developing both technical and soft skills within internal teams and stakeholders to build the competencies required to manage uncertainty effectively.
To tackle this pervasive issue, the study proposes a development framework that outlines strategies for enhancing key competencies among project members. Grounded in strong theoretical foundations from existing uncertainty management literature, the framework offers practical recommendations based on the case study of the 2GW Landstation project. This approach aims to accelerate the development of key competencies, equipping organizations to manage the uncertainties inherent in infrastructure projects more effectively.