Finding the causal effect of picking Slark in the game of Dota 2 on the final match outcome based on in-match events using the front-door adjustment

Bachelor thesis (2022)

Authors

H. Liang Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science

Contributors

R.K.A. Karlsson Pattern Recognition and Bioinformatics - EEMCS (mentor)
J.H. Krijthe Pattern Recognition and Bioinformatics - EEMCS (mentor)
K.A. Hildebrandt Computer Graphics and Visualisation - EEMCS (graduation committee member)
Faculty
Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science, Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science
Copyright: © 2022 Hendy Liang
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Published Date

24-06-2022

Language

English

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Faculty

Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science

Abstract

The front-door adjustment is a causal inference method with which it is possible to determine the causal effect of applying a treatment given a setting which satisfies the front-door criterion. This involves having a mediator through which all the causal effect flows from treatment to outcome. The front-door adjustment adjusts for confounders and tries to only measure the causal effect from treatment to outcome. The goal is to test the applicability of the front-door adjustment using the game of Dota 2 as a testing ground. The front-door adjustment has been applied to find the effect of picking ‘Slark’ on the outcome of the game. The mediator in this case is the enemy team buying an item called ‘Hurricane Pike’. Two different approaches have been used, both giving varying results. These varying results lead to different possible interpretations. This variety of interpretations therefore suggest that the front-door adjustment is not a valid method for this specific scenario, likely due to the complexity of the game and perhaps the simplified representation of the game in the data-set.