Multi-fidelity probabilistic design framework for early-stage design of novel vessels

Abstract

Early-stage design is the most critical phase in a vessel’s development, as this is when many of the major decisions are made and locked in for the remainder of the design process. Most early-stage design frameworks are tailored to conventional vessels, aiming to explore a broad design space—essentially assessing numerous design variations. However, to evaluate such a wide range of design solutions, these frameworks often sacrifice accuracy in their analysis methods to allow for more design evaluations. Consequently, low-fidelity tools are typically used for early-stage design exploration.
For novel vessel designs, low-fidelity analysis methods are insufficient for accurately assessing performance, as they often fail to capture the new and sometimes complex physics involved. While increasing the fidelity of analysis methods leads to more accurate performance assessment, it also raises computational costs, making it impractical to evaluate a large number of design variations. Multi-fidelity models, which combine lower-fidelity methods with a high-fidelity analysis method, offer a promising solution for enabling higher-fidelity assessments earlier in the design process. Thus, this dissertation builds the architecture of a multi-design architectural framework for early-stage design of novel vessels...