The peace treaty of Colombia has promised to end over fifty years of armed conflict, which has been significantly financed by the cultivation and processing of illicit crops. The treaty contemplates a substitution policy that offers financial incentives and social investment to the coca-growing communities to replace their illicit crops by legal alternatives. This study examines the substitution policy tradeoffs in the Putumayo-Caquetá and the Catatumbo regions, by applying Life Cycle Assessment framework coupled with socioeconomic indicators, to four scenarios. Implications of coca cultivation and its derivatives (Business-as-Usual scenario) were evaluated and contrasted with the successful implementation of the policy (Policy Success scenario), a partial substitution of the illegal crops (Conservative scenario) and the geographical displacement of coca cultivation (Balloon Effect scenario).
Compared to the Business-as-Usual scenario, Policy Success, and Conservative scenarios mitigate photochemical oxidation, ozone layer and abiotic resources depletion environmental impacts in both regions. In contrast, acidification and eutrophication in the Catatumbo region and toxicity impacts in the Putumayo-Caquetá region worsen. For both regions, Balloon Effect scenario increases the environmental burden in almost all the categories evaluated. The socioeconomic analysis reveals that for the Catatumbo region farmers, successful implementation of the policy implies a reduction on their income .For coca-growing farmers of Putumayo-Caquetá region, Policy Success scenario has a positive impact on the income and job generation, while Conservative and Balloon Effect reduce the profit. In general, it was observed that the dynamics of the illegal chain varies from region to region, influencing the environmental and socioeconomic outcome of the substitution policy.