This paper proposes a virtual water trade model to obtain a better understanding of how hydro-climatic change affects societies through changes in virtual water trade. In previous studies it has been shown that global trade patterns can be influenced by water scarcity and vice-versa. The extent to which this relationship holds is still a topic under discussion. With the model introduced in this paper, the dynamics behind these trade patterns are further explored. First, a model is constructed of a society suffering from an increase in water scarcity. This model is shown to be capable of replicating patterns of technological, population, production and consumption per capita changes. In order to incorporate the effects of globalization and trade, the model has been extended to a toy model of virtual water trade between two societies. The two societies are represented by overlapping generations models. The individuals of each generation provide the labour needed for the production of the composite goods. In addition to this labour, water and technology are also incorporated as factors of production. There are two goods being produced; one is labour intensive and the other water intensive. Trade emerges from the principle of comparative advantage, with differences in labour-abundance and water resources availability between the two societies. Using this model of two societies interconnected by trade, it is examined how trade of water-intensive commodities alters under changing scarcity conditions. In particular we explore the conditions under which trade emerges, and to what extent. Furthermore, we present the conditions for the sustainable development within these two societies. @en

Maharashtra is one of the states in India that has witnessed one of the highest rates of farmer suicides as proportion of total number of suicides. Most of the farmer suicides in Maharashtra are from semi-arid divisions such as Marathwada where cotton has been historically grown. Other dominant crops produced include cereals, pulses, oilseeds and sugarcane. Cotton (fibers), oilseeds and sugarcane providing highest value addition per unit cultivated area and cereals and pulses the least. Hence it is not surprising that smallholders take risks growing high value crops without ’visualising’ the risks it entails such as those corresponding to price and weather shocks. We deploy recently developed smallholder socio-hydrology modelling framework to understand the underlying dynamics of the crisis. It couples the dynamics of 6 main variables that are most relevant at the scale of a smallholder: water storage capacity (root zone storage and other ways of water storage), capital, livestock, soil fertility and fodder biomass. The hydroclimatic variability is accounted for at sub-annual scale and influences the socio-hydrology at annual scale. The model is applied to Marathwada division of Maharashtra to understand the dynamics of its cotton growing marginal farmers, using diverse data sets of precipitation, potential evaporation, agricultural census based farm inputs and prices. Results confirm existing narratives: low water storage capacities, no irrigation and poor access to alternative sources of incomes are to blame for the crisis. It suggests that smart indigenous solutions such as rain water harvesting and better integration of smallholder systems to efficient agricultural supply chains are needed to tackle this development challenge. @en

Recently a smallholder socio-hydrological modelling framework was proposed and deployed to understand the underlying dynamics of Agrarian Crisis in Maharashtra state of India. It was found that cotton and sugarcane smallholders whom lack irrigation and storage techniques are most susceptible to distress. This study further expands the application of the modelling framework to other crops that are abundant in the state of Maharashtra, such as Paddy, Jowar and Soyabean to assess whether the conclusions on the possible causes behind smallholder distress still hold. Further, a fieldwork will be undertaken in March 2016 in the district of Pune. During the fieldwork 50 smallholders will be interviewed in which socio-hydrological assumptions on hydrology and capital equations and corresponding closure relationships, incorporated the current model, will be put to test. Besides the assumptions, the questionnaires will be used to better understand the hydrological reality of the farm holders, in terms of water usage and storage capacity. In combination with historical records on the smallholders’ socio-economic data acquired over the last thirty years available through several NGOs in the region, socio-hydrological realism of the modelling framework will be enhanced. The preliminary outcomes of a desktop study show the possibilities of a water-centric modelling framework in understanding the constraints on smallholder farming. The results and methods described can be a first step guiding following research on the modelling framework: a start in testing the framework in multiple rural locations around the globe. @en