The transition process towards renewable energy systems is facing challenges in both fluctuating electricity generation of photovoltaic and wind power as well as socio-economic disruptions. With regard to sector integration, solutions need to be developed, especially for the mobility and the industry sector, because their ad hoc electrification and decarbonization seem to be unfeasible. Power-to-fuel (P2F) technologies may contribute to bridge the gap, as renewable energy can be transferred into hydrogen and hydrocarbon-based synthetic fuels. However, the renewable fuels production is far from economically competitive with conventional fuels. With a newly developed agent-based model, potential developments in the German energy markets were simulated for a horizon of 20 years from 2016 to 2035. The model was constructed through a participatory modeling process with relevant actors and stakeholders in the field. Model findings suggest that adjusted regulatory framework conditions (e.g., exemptions from electricity surtaxes, accurate prices for CO2-certificates, strong start-up subsidies, and drastic emission reduction quotas) are key factors for economically feasible P2F installations and will contribute to its large-scale integration into the German energy system. While plant capacities do not exceed 0.042 GW in a business-as-usual scenarios, the above-mentioned adjustments lead to plant capacities of at least 3.25 GW in 2035 with concurrent reduction in product prices.

The shift to markets based on servicising, i.e. market-level transitions from product-based to service-based production and consumption patterns, may contribute to achieve absolute decoupling, i.e. the combined development of economic growth and environmental impact reduction. However, the potential of this contribution is largely unknown. In this paper a generic agent-based model of servicising is presented with which this potential can be explored further, taking into account decision making procedures of business and consumer agents, including market research, preferences, and willingness to pay. The details of the servicising model are presented, and the model's abilities are demonstrated through three case studies from different sectors: car and bike sharing, crop protection, and domestic water-saving systems. Absolute decoupling was found to occur in some of the policy scenarios, but results vary widely between cases. It is concluded that the model can be used to explore the impact of public policy on the uptake of servicising and on absolute decoupling in various sectors, and is therefore a useful support tool for policy makers who aim to promote servicising, as well as for researchers studying potential servicising impacts.