Capacity plays a crucial role in a port’s competitive position and the growth of its market share. An investment decision to provide new port capacity should be supported by a growing demand for port services. However, port demand is volatile and uncertain in an increasingly competitive market environment. Also, forecasting models themselves are associated with epistemic uncertainty due to model and parameter uncertainties. This paper applies a Bayesian statistical method to forecast the annual throughput of the multipurpose Port of Isafjordur in Iceland. Model uncertainties are thus taken into account, while parameter uncertainties are handled by selecting influencing macroeconomic variables based on mutual information analysis. The presented model has an adaptive capability as new information becomes available. Our method results in a range of port throughput forecasts, in addition to a point estimate, and it also accounts for epistemic uncertainty, thus increasing the reliability of forecasts. Our results provide support for informed decision-making in capacity planning and management. Our forecasts show a constant linear growth of containerized throughput the period 2020–2025. Noncontainerized throughput declines rapidly over the same period.

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Ports are complex engineering systems that have always been evolving to satisfy the new or changing demands of stakeholders. However, the ever-growing complexity in port sectors in a volatile environment creates a high degree of uncertainty in port planning projects. This study presents a structured framework to deal with uncertainties in the port planning process. Stakeholder analysis, different methods of addressing uncertain developments, and SWOT analysis were jointly used to develop the framework. Effective actions were planned in response to opportunities and vulnerabilities derived from uncertainties that manifest in a projected lifetime. Face-to-face interviews with key stakeholders and literature review were conducted to identify uncertainties and planning horizons. The framework was applied to the Ports of Isafjordur Network in Iceland. The results show that demand for aquaculture and cruise activities create the main uncertainties for the port network. Uncertainties mainly present opportunities in the short-term horizon, while in the middle-term horizon the port network is confronted with multiple vulnerabilities. The nonlinearity of dealing with uncertainty by application of the framework provides a robust and better plan toward its success in a dynamic world. The framework supports decision making under uncertainty by facilitating adaptive port planning.

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Purpose
Port throughput analysis is a challenging task, as it consists of intertwined interactions between a variety of cargos and numerous influencing factors. This study aims to propose a quantitative method to facilitate port throughput analysis by identification of important cargos and key macroeconomic variables.

Design/methodology/approach
Mutual information is applied to measure the linear and nonlinear correlation among variables. The method gives a unique measure of dependence between two variables by quantifying the amount of information held in one variable through another variable.

Findings
This study uses the mutual information to the Port of Isafjordur in Iceland to underpin the port throughput analysis. The results show that marine products are the main export cargo, whereas most imports are fuel oil, industrial materials and marine product. The aggregation of these cargos, handled in the port, meaningfully determines the non-containerized port throughput. The relation between non-containerized export and the national gross domestic product (GDP) is relatively high. However, non-containerized import is mostly related to the world GDP. The non-containerized throughput shows a strong relation to the national GDP. Furthermore, the results reveal that the volume of national export trade is the key influencing macroeconomic variable to the containerized throughput.

Originality/value
Application of the mutual information in port throughput analysis effectively reduces epistemic uncertainty in the identification of important cargos and key influencing macroeconomic variables. Thus, it increases the reliability of the port throughput forecast.@en

Multiple stakeholders with a wide range of objectives are engaged in a port system. Ports themselves are faced with many uncertainties in this volatile world. To meet stakeholder objectives and deal with uncertainties, adaptive port planning is increasingly being acknowledged. This method offers robust planning, and thereby, a sustainable and flexible port may be developed. The planning process starts with defining success in terms of the specific objectives of stakeholders during the projected lifetime of the port. In the present work, an integrated framework to reach a consensus on the definition of success, involving stakeholders with different influences, stakes and objectives, is presented. The framework synthesises the problem structuring method with stakeholder analysis and combines these with fuzzy logic to support decision-makers in formulating a definition of success in the planning process. Our framework is applied to the Port of Isafjordur, the third busiest port of call for cruise ships in Iceland. Values of stakeholders about port planning were structured around the value-focussed thinking method to identify stakeholder objectives. The highest level of agreement on the objectives, which is viewed here as success in port planning, was revealed by the fuzzy multi-attribute group decision-making method. Success was defined, prioritising an increase in competitiveness among other planning objectives, such as effective and efficient use of land, increasing safety and security, increasing hinterland connectivity, increasing financial performance, better environmental implications, flexibility creation and increasing positive economic and social impacts.

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The dynamic and ever-increasing complex nature of a port system involves a variety of stakeholders with a broad spectrum of involvement and objectives. In the port master planning, to fulfill the objectives of the various stakeholders and manage conflicts and controversies, a stakeholder analysis is carried out. However, effective and timely engagement of the key stakeholders in the planning process is not an easy task. This paper presents a framework of stakeholder analysis for the case study of the Multi-Purpose Port of Isafjordur in Iceland to underpin the master planning process. The framework deals with a systematic procedure of identification, grouping and then static mapping of stakeholders by means of the power-interest matrix. Further, the fuzzy logic 3-dimensional decision surface was adopted for dynamic salience mapping of the stakeholders. A survey and face-to-face interviews were conducted as tools to collect input for the stakeholder analysis based on the elements of the port master planning. The elements include competitiveness, land use, environmental implication, safety and security, hinterland connection, economic and social impact, financial performance, and flexibility. This paper reveals that dynamic mapping provides a more accurate stakeholder analysis in the field of port master planning than do other methods. The result of the decision surface shows different saliences of key stakeholders, including legislation and public policy, and internal and external stakeholders in the master planning. Thus, in order to have effective and timely stakeholder inclusion throughout the port planning process, a different strategy of engagement with them should be applied.
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