Lateral migration of meandering rivers poses erosional risks to human settlements, roads, and infrastructure in alluvial floodplains. While there is a large body of scientific literature on the dominant mechanisms driving river migration, it is still not possible to accurately predict river meander evolution over multiple years. This is in part because we do not fully understand the relative contribution of each mechanism and because deterministic mathematical models are not equipped to account for stochasticity in the system. Besides, uncertainty due to model structure deficits and unknown parameter values remains. For a more reliable assessment of risks, we therefore need probabilistic forecasts. Here, we present a workflow to generate geomorphic risk maps for river migration using probabilistic modeling. We start with a simple geometric model for river migration, where nominal migration rates increase with local and upstream curvature. We then account for model structure deficits using smooth random functions. Probabilistic forecasts for river channel position over time are generated by Monte Carlo runs using a distribution of model parameter values inferred from satellite data. We provide a recipe for parameter inference within the Bayesian framework. We demonstrate that such risk maps are relatively more informative in avoiding false negatives, which can be both detrimental and costly, in the context of assessing erosional hazards due to river migration. Our results show that with longer prediction time horizons, the spatial uncertainty of erosional hazard within the entire channel belt increases – with more geographical area falling within 25 % < probability < 75 %. However, forecasts also become more confident about erosion for regions immediately in the vicinity of the river, especially on its cut-bank side. Probabilistic modeling thus allows us to quantify our degree of confidence – which is spatially and temporally variable – in river migration forecasts. We also note that to increase the reliability of these risk maps, we need to describe the first-order dynamics in our model to a reasonable degree of accuracy, and simple geometric models do not always possess such accuracy.@en

Rapid warming in the Arctic threatens to destabilize mercury (Hg) deposits contained within soils in permafrost regions. Yet current estimates of the amount of Hg in permafrost vary by ∼4 times. Moreover, how Hg will be released to the environment as permafrost thaws remains poorly known, despite threats to water quality, human health, and the environment. Here we present new measurements of total mercury (THg) contents in discontinuous permafrost in the Yukon River Basin in Alaska. We collected riverbank and floodplain sediments from exposed banks and bars near the villages of Huslia and Beaver. Median THg contents were 49+13/−21 ng THg g sediment−1 and 39+16/−18 ng THg g sediment−1 for Huslia and Beaver, respectively (uncertainties as 15th and 85th percentiles). Corresponding THg:organic carbon ratios were 5.4+2.0/−2.4 Gg THg Pg C−1 and 4.2 +2.4/−2.9 Gg THg Pg C−1. To constrain floodplain THg stocks, we combined measured THg contents with floodplain stratigraphy. Trends of THg increasing with smaller sediment size and calculated stocks in the upper 1 m and 3 m are similar to those suggested for this region by prior pan-Arctic studies. We combined THg stocks and river migration rates derived from remote sensing to estimate particulate THg erosional and depositional fluxes as river channels migrate across the floodplain. Results show similar fluxes within uncertainty into the river from erosion at both sites (95+12/−47 kg THg yr−1 and 26+154/−13 kg THg yr−1 at Huslia and Beaver, respectively), but different fluxes out of the river via deposition in aggrading bars (60+40/−29 kg THg yr−1 and 10+5.3/−1.7 kg THg yr−1). Thus, a significant amount of THg is liberated from permafrost during bank erosion, while a variable but generally lesser portion is subsequently redeposited by migrating rivers.@en

Muddy sediment constitutes a major fraction of the suspended sediment mass carried by the Mississippi River. Thus, adequate knowledge of the transport dynamics of suspended mud in this region is critical in devising efficient management plans for coastal Louisiana. We conducted laboratory tank experiments on the sediment suspended in the lower reaches of the Mississippi River to provide insight into the flocculation behavior of the mud. In particular, we measure how the floc size distribution responds to changing environmental factors of turbulent energy, sediment concentration, and changes in base water composition and salinity during summer and winter. We also compare observations from the tank experiments to in situ observations. Turbulence shear rate, a measure of river hydrodynamic energy, was found to be the most influential factor in determining mud floc size. All flocs produced at a given shear rate could be kept in suspension down to shear rates of approximately 20 s⁻¹. At this shear rate, flocs on the order of 150–200 μm and larger can settle out. Equilibrium floc size was not found to depend on sediment concentration; flocs larger than 100 μm formed in sediment concentrations as low as 20 mgL⁻¹. An increase in salinity generated by adding salts to river water suspensions did not increase the flocculation rate or equilibrium size. However, the addition of water collected from the Gulf of Mexico to river-water suspensions did enhance the flocculation rate and the equilibrium sizes. We speculate that the effects of Gulf of Mexico water originate from its biomatter content rather than its ion composition. Floc sizes in the mixing tanks were comparable to those from the field for similar estimated turbulent energy. Flocs were found to break within minutes under increased turbulence but can take hours to grow under conditions of reduced shear in freshwater settings. Growth was faster with the addition of Gulf of Mexico water. Overall, the experiments provide information on how suspended mud in the lower reaches of the Mississippi might respond to changes in turbulence and salinity moving from the fluvial to marine setting through natural distributary channels or man-made diversions.

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The Mississippi River is a vital economic corridor used for generating hydroelectric power, transporting agricultural products, and municipal and industrial water use. Communities, industries, and infrastructure along the Mississippi River face an uncertain future as it grows more susceptible to climate extremes. A key challenge is determining whether Mississippi river discharge will increase or decrease during the 21st century. Because the 20th century record is limited in time, paleoclimate data and model simulations provide enhanced understanding of the basin's hydroclimate response to external forcing. Here, we investigate how anthropogenic forcing in the 20th century shifts the statistics of river discharge compared to a Last Millennium (LM) baseline using simulations from the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble. We present evidence that the 20th century exhibits wetter conditions (i.e., increased river discharge) over the basin compared to the pre-industrial, and that land use/land cover changes have a significant control on the hydroclimatic response. Conversely, while precipitation is projected to increase in the 21st century, the basin is generally drier (i.e., decreased river discharge) compared to the 20th century. Overall, we find that changes in greenhouse gases contribute to a lower risk of extreme discharge and flooding in the basin during the 20th century, while land use changes contribute to increased risk of flooding. The additional climate information afforded by the LM simulations offers an improved understanding of what drove extreme flooding events in the past, which can help inform the development of future regional flood mitigation strategies.

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The riverine transport and deposition of mud is the primary agent of landscape construction and evolution in many fluvial and coastal environments. Previous efforts exploring this process have raised uncertainty regarding the effects of hydrodynamic and chemical controls on the transport and deposition of mud, and thus the constructions of muddy coastal and upstream environments. As such, direct measurements are necessary to constrain the deposition of mud by river systems. Here, we combine laboratory evidence and a field investigation in the Mississippi River delta to explore the controls on the riverine transport and deposition of mud. We show that the flocculation of mud, with floc diameters greater than 10 μm, in freshwater is a ubiquitous phenomenon, causing the sedimentation of mud to be driven by changes in local hydrodynamics, and thus providing an explanation for how river systems construct landscapes through the deposition of mud in both coastal and upstream environments.

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