Several model inter-comparison projects (MIPs) have been carried out recently by the climate, hydrological, agricultural and other modelling communities to quantify modelling uncertainties and improve modelling systems. Here we focus on MIP design for large-scale water quality models. Water quality MIPs can be useful to improve our understanding of pollution problems and facilitate the development of harmonized estimates of current and future water quality. This can provide new opportunities for assessing robustness in estimates of water quality hotspots and trends, improve understanding of processes, pollution sources, water quality model uncertainties, and to identify priorities for water quality data collection and monitoring. Water quality MIP design should harmonize relevant model input datasets, use consistent spatial/temporal domains and resolutions, and similar output variables to improve understanding of water quality modelling uncertainties and provide harmonized water quality data that suit the needs of decision makers and other users.

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In many regions of the world, intensive livestock farming has become a significant source of organic river pollution. As the international meat trade is growing rapidly, the environmental impacts of meat production within one country can occur either domestically or internationally. The goal of this paper is to quantify the impacts of the international meat trade on global organic river pollution at multiple scales (national, regional and gridded). Using the biological oxygen demand (BOD) as an overall indicator of organic river pollution, we compute the spatially distributed organic pollution in global river networks with and without a meat trade, where the without-trade scenario assumes that meat imports are replaced by local production. Our analysis reveals a reduction in the livestock population and production of organic pollutants at the global scale as a result of the international meat trade. However, the actual environmental impact of trade, as quantified by in-stream BOD concentrations, is negative; i.e. we find a slight increase in polluted river segments. More importantly, our results show large spatial variability in local (grid-scale) impacts that do not correlate with local changes in BOD loading, which illustrates: (1) the significance of accounting for the spatial heterogeneity of hydrological processes along river networks, and (2) the limited value of looking at country-level or global averages when estimating the actual impacts of trade on the environment.

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Organic pollution of rivers by wastewater discharge from human activities negatively impacts people and ecosystems. Without treatment, pollution control relies on a combination of natural degradation and dilution by natural runoff to reduce downstream effects. We quantify here for the first time the global sanitation crisis through its impact on organic river pollution from the threats of (1) increasing wastewater discharge due to urbanization and intensification of livestock farming, and (2) reductions in river dilution capacity due to climate change and water extractions. Using in-stream Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) as an overall indicator of organic river pollution, we calculate historical (2000) and future (2050) BOD concentrations in global river networks. Despite significant self-cleaning capacities of rivers, the number of people affected by organic pollution (BOD >5 mg/l) is projected to increase from 1.1 billion in 2000 to 2.5 billion in 2050. With developing countries disproportionately affected, our results point to a growing need for affordable wastewater solutions.

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Rising demand of meat boosts livestock farming intensification. Due to international meat trade, the environmental costs of production are becoming increasingly separated from where the meat is consumed. However, little is known about the impact of trade on the environment for both importers and exporters. Combining multi-scale (national, regional and gridded) data, we present a new method to quantify the impacts of international meat trade on global river organic pollution. We computed spatially distributed organic pollution in global river networks with and without meat trade, where the without-trade scenario assumes that meat imports are replaced by local production. Our analysis indicates high potential savings of livestock population and pollutants production at the global scale due to the international meat trade. The spatially detailed analysis shows that current trade contributes to organic pollution reductions in meat importing regions, especially in rich nations. The deterioration of river water quality, especially in developing regions, points to an urgent need for affordable infrastructure and technology development and wastewater solutions.@en

Organic pollution of rivers by wastewater discharge from human activities negatively impacts people and ecosystems. Without treatment, pollution control relies on a combination of natural degradation and dilution by natural runoff to reduce downstream effects. To implement integrated water management for organic river quality at global scale, a crucial step is to develop a spatial analysis of organic river pollution threats. This thesis provides for the first time a quantitative picture of the global sanitation crisis through its impact on organic river pollution from the threats of (1) increasing wastewater discharge due to urbanization and intensification of livestock farming, and (2) reductions in river dilution capacity due to climate change and water extractions. Using in-stream Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) as an overall indicator of organic river pollution, historical (2000) and future (2050) BOD concentrations in global river networks are calculated. Despite significant self-cleaning capacities of rivers, the number of people affected by organic pollution (BOD È 5 mg/l) is projected to increase from 1.1 billion in 2000 to 2.5 billion in 2050. With developing countries disproportionately affected, the results point to a growing need for affordable wastewater solutions. @en