Dam breaches often have catastrophic consequences in downstream areas. Hydrodynamic factors and the evacuation potential of the population at risk (PAR) have significant impacts on the loss of life (LOL) caused by dam breaches. However, the existing comprehensive evaluation models have not conducted in-depth research on the evacuation potential of populations. Thus, limited guidance is available for relevant departments to formulate emergency plans to reduce the potential LOL. Therefore, a new comprehensive evaluation model was proposed in this study. According to the relevant references and disaster theory, the main influencing factors and the process through which the LOL is caused by dam breaches were determined. The specific occurrence process was divided into six stages: a dam breach causes flood, the flood puts the PAR, the PAR complete the preparation work, the PAR evacuate, the un-evacuated population shelter themselves inside buildings, and flood causes the death of the exposed population. To calculate the LOL, the parameters relevant at each stage were defined. Furthermore, the Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System, Geographic Information System, and related materials were used to simulate the flood routing and evacuation potential of the PAR, quantifying the parameters in the model. The model was applied to 14 towns in the downstream areas of the Luhun Reservoir in Henan Province, China, and its accuracy was verified by comparing the results obtained from the two existing models. In addition, the specific suggestions for reducing the potential LOL were proposed based on the results of the simulation.

Due to an intensification of anthropogenic activities and climate change in recent decades, the hydrological connections and relationships between rivers and lakes have been significantly modified globally. Poyang Lake is one of the largest freshwater lakes globally and is one of the few that remain naturally connected to the Yangtze River. To investigate the full hydrological conditions (extreme high and low discharge) of Poyang Lake outflow under current bathymetric conditions, a large-scale 1D- and 2D-coupled high-resolution hydrodynamic model of the Poyang Lake basin–Yangtze River system was developed. We simulated the outflow and water levels of Poyang Lake under nine different extreme hydrological scenarios with high precision and computational efficiency. We propose (1) a novel partition calibration method to characterize the roughness coefficient of large water bodies in complicated geographical terrain both for wet and dry seasons; (2) a new method for setting initial conditions for hydrodynamic simulation of large water bodies subject to strong hydrological regulation. Results indicated that (1) maximum outflow and water levels will reach 37,200 m³/s and 22.28 m when Poyang Lake basin floodwater coincides with flooding on the Yangtze River; (2) precipitation over the lake has increased outflow but this has had very limited influence on its changing hydrological pattern; (3) the effect of hydrological conditions within the system differs for both the lake outflow and water level. The research provides important reference conditions for the application of the InfoWorks ICM model in future applications and studies of large river–lake systems.