This study evaluates the introduction of Carbon Capture and Utilization (CCU) process in two Colombian refineries, focusing on their potential to reduce CO2 emissions and their associated impacts under a scenario aligned with the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario defined in the 2023 IEA report. The work uses a MILP programming tool (Linny-R) to model the operational processes of refinery sites, incorporating a net total cost calculation to optimize process perfor-mance over five-year intervals. This optimization was constrained by the maximum allowable CO2 emissions. The methodology includes the calculation of surplus refinery off-gas availability, the selection of products and CCU technologies, and the systematic collection of data from re-finery operations, as well as scientific and industrial publications. The results indicate that inte-grating surplus refinery fuel gas (originally used for combustion processes) and HTL bio-crude off-gas (as a source of biogenic CO2) can significantly lower scope 1 and 2 CO2 emissions, align-ing with long-term decarbonization goals. However, these advantages carry additional costs due to significant increases in utility demands. In the high-complexity refinery, electricity consump-tion increases by a factor of 16, steam demand by a factor of 2.5, and water usage by a factor of 3. Similarly, in the medium-complexity refinery, electricity consumption rises by a factor of 19, steam demand by a factor of 7, and water usage by a factor of 4. These increases are primarily driven by the renewable energy requirements for water electrolyzers and CO2 capture units. Fur-thermore, despite achieving CO2 neutrality in scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2050, scope 3 emis-sions increase due to additional CO2-based methanol production.
Economic analyses highlight profit opportunities in the long term, as the production costs of CO2-based methanol is lower than forecasted fossil-based cost of production , enhancing their economic viability in the long term.
The study emphasizes the critical influence of refinery complexity levels on the scale and timeline for implementing these technologies to achieve short- and long-term CO2 reduction targets. However, further evaluation is necessary to align these results with national electrical grid ca-pacity, water supply availability, and expansion plans.
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This paper evaluates the potential impacts of introducing low-carbon intensity hydrogen technologies in two oil refineries with different complexity levels, emphasizing the role of hydrogen production in reducing CO₂ emissions. The novelty of this work lies in three key aspects: Comprehensive system analysis of refinery complexity using real site data, integration of low-carbon Hydrogen technologies, long-term and short-term strategies. Two Colombian refineries serve as case studies, with technological solutions adapted to their complexity levels. The methodology involves evaluating different options for hydrogen production, accounting for improvement in technological efficiency over time. The refinery systems were evaluated in a cost-optimization model built in Linny-r. Three different scenarios were considered, Business-As-Usual (BAU), high, and low-ambitions decarbonization scenarios, focusing on the time horizons of 2030 and 2050. When comparing the two case studies, the preferred decarbonization strategy for both facilities involves the substitution of SMR technology with water electrolyzers powered by renewable electricity. Post-2030, biomass-based hydrogen technology is still a costly alternative; however, to achieve CO₂ neutrality, negative emissions storage of biogenic CO₂ emerges as an achievable alternative. Our results indicate the achievability of CO₂ reduction objectives in both refineries. Our results show that achieving long-term CO₂ neutrality requires both refineries to increase renewable electricity production by 5 to 6 times for powering water electrolyzers, steam production by 2 to 2.5 times for CO₂ capture, and supply of dry biomass by 2.6 to 4.5 kt/d. The two most significant factors influencing the refining net margin in the decarbonization scenarios are primarily the CO₂ and the renewable electricity prices. The short-term horizon emerges as the pivotal period, particularly within the high-ambition decarbonization scenarios. In this context, the medium complexity refinery demonstrates economic viability until a CO₂ price of 140 €/t CO₂, while the high complexity refinery endures up to 205 €/t CO₂. The high complexity refinery is better prepared to face the challenges of decarbonization and the impacts generated on the refining margin. Compared to the BAU scenario, the high complexity refinery shows a negative impact on the net margin that corresponds to a 40 % and 5 % reduction in the short and long term, respectively. Meanwhile, for the medium complexity refinery, the impact on net margin amounts to a 52 % reduction in the short term and a 27 % improvement in the long term. Furthermore, our research highlights the significant potential for reducing CO₂ emissions by fully eliminating the use of refinery gas as fuel, providing alternative applications for it beyond combustion.

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This research uses system optimization to assess short, medium, and long-term scenarios to achieve the committed CO₂-emission goals of Ecopetrol while minimizing potential adverse impacts such as incremental operational costs and utility demand. Two Colombian refineries are used as a case study: a medium-complexity and a high-complexity refinery. The study explores whether the level of complexity plays a significant role in the results. Potential technologies were ranked using a multi-criteria decision analysis. The system analysis and optimization were done in Linny-R, a mixed integer linear programming software package developed by TU Delft. In the short-term (2030) scenario, the selected technologies include low-carbon H₂ produced from Steam Methane Reformer units with carbon capture and storage and H₂ produced from renewable electricity sources. The medium and long-term (2050) scenario also included biomass gasification, naphtha reforming, and the cracking unit, all with carbon capture and storage. The refineries were modelled using on-site company data. The results indicate that using low-carbon H₂ and carbon capture and storage to flue gases would allow to reach the net zero target. Furthermore, the results show that the level of complexity in a refinery significantly impacts the decarbonization deployment pathways. The high-complexity refineries benefited from using low-carbon H₂ as feedstock while the medium-complexity refinery relied on a combination of carbon capture and low-carbon H₂ as an alternative fuel. This research highlights the potential to achieve substantial CO₂ emissions reductions with less impact on the total operational cost by using the amount of excess refinery gas generated when H₂ is used as fuel in boilers and process furnaces. A significant challenge remains in identifying suitable applications for surplus refinery fuel gas beyond its conventional use in combustion within boilers and furnaces.

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