Climate change is related with weather extremes, which may cause damages to infrastructure used by freight transport services. Heavy rainfall may lead to flooding and damage to railway lines, roads and inland waterways. Extreme drought may lead to extremely low water levels, which prevent safe navigation by inland barges. Wet and dry periods may alternate, leaving little time to repair damages. In some Western and Middle-European countries, barges have a large share in freight transport. If a main waterway is out of service, then alternatives are called for. Volume- and price-wise, trucking is not a viable alternative. Could railways be that alternative? The paper was written after the unusually long dry summer period in Europe in 2022. It deals with the question: If the Rhine, a major European waterway becomes locally inaccessible, could railways (temporarily) play a larger role in freight transport? It is a continuation of our earlier research. It contains a case study, the data of which was fed into a simulation model. The model deals with technical details like service specification route length, energy consumption and emissions. The study points to interesting rail services to keep Europe’s freight on the move. Their realization may be complex especially in terms of logistics and infrastructure, but is there an alternative?@en

Densely populated areas are major sources of air, soil and water pollution. Agriculture, manufacturing, consumer households and road traffic all have their share. This is particularly true for the country featured in this paper: the Netherlands. Continuous pollution of the air and soil manifests itself as acification, decalcification and eutrofication. Biodiversity becomes lower and lower in nature areas. Biological farms are also under threat. In case of mobility, local air pollution may have a huge health impact. Effective policy is called for, after high courts blocked construction projects, because of foreseen building- and transport-related NOx emissions. EU law makers are after Dutch governments, because these favoured economics and politics over environmental and liveability concerns. But, people in the Netherlands are strongly divided. The latest provincial elections were dominated by environmental concerns, next to many socio-economic issues. NOx and CO2 emissions by passenger cars are in focus. Technical means and increasing fuel economy norms strongly reduced NOx emissions to a still too high level. A larger number of cars neutralized a technological reduction of CO2 emissions. The question is: What would be the impact of a drastic mandatory reduction in CO2, NOx, and PM10 emissions on car ownership and use in the Netherlands? The authors used literature, scenario analysis and simulation modelling to answer this question. Electric mobility could remove these emissions. Its full impact will only be achieved if the grid-mix, which is still dominated by fossil fuels, becomes green(er), which is a gradual, long-term, process. EVs compete with other consumers of electricity, as many other activities, such as heating, are also electrifying. With the current grid-mix, it is inevitable that the number of km per vehicle per year is reduced to reach the scenario targets (−25% resp. −50% CO2 emissions by cars). This calls for an individual mobility budget per car user.@en

Many countries have enhanced their air quality agenda (NOx, PMx etc.) by a climate change agenda (CO2 etc.). A direct way to lower these emissions is by using less energy (fuel) per activity. One of these activities is freight transport. Transport from supplier to factory relies on efficient and cost-effective means of transport. Road transport (trucking) is usually preferred. But, trucking is still very dependent on fossil fuels. It is also not suitable for bulk transport over longer distances. In areas without suitable waterways, rail is a logical alternative, but is has its own perils. This paper discusses options to make bulk freight services between Germany and France compliant with emission reduction targets. This leads to the main research question: Is it possible to design rail freight routes that reduce fuel use, emissions of CO2, NOx and PM10, while offering competitive transport times? Main rail corridors show signs of congestion and lack of resilience. It is then interesting to research if (dormant) regional/rural, non-electrified, rail tracks could provide capacity and increase resilience of rail services. Such services could also benefit rural economies. A literature study and conversations with a regional expert were used to develop a case study with a rail service using alternative routes. A model was used to estimate the fuel consumption, emissions and trip times of such services. The study indicates that it takes concerted action to achieve the intended goals.

@en

In a world where the population and many economies are expanding rapidly the demand for freight transport keeps rising accordingly. As more goods are transported by a growing number of freight vehicles, in particular trucks and sea vessels, their already considerable negative environmental impact also rises. Technology advances, but demand growth (partially) counteracts its positive impact on fuel consumption and emissions. In road transport, CO2-emissions keep rising, while emissions of NOx and PM10 have been reduced, at least in those countries where the most advanced engine technologies are used, although locally serious problems may remain. In areas where such technologies are not available, more freight transport means higher emissions and negative health effects. Sea shipping sees increasing emission levels overall. Maritime transport and trucking dominate intercontinental freight transport. Modernisation of railways and roads offers opportunities to reduce emissions by using rail for part of the journey. In a market setting, this means that transport providers have to redesign transport chains. Some have done this already, while others are increasingly interested. To assess the potential, the following main research question was addressed: Is it possible to reduce emissions of CO2, NOx and PM10 by replacing the maritime leg of a transport service by road and/or rail transport in the corridor Antwerp (Belgium) – Shanghai (China) without logistic penalties? Various combinations of trucking, sea and rail transport were fed into a simulation model to estimate the accompanying emissions and trip times. The
new services offer a complex range of positive and negative impacts; hence governments should carefully consider their support. In a simulation study only a very stylised representation of these services can be modelled. This leads to an advice for a more in-depth study to include additional (technical, service and cost) data.@en

Tourism is a fast-growing key industry, which provides an economic rationale for governments to stimulate it. The more it grows, the higher the negative environmental effects and the more the use of space, resources, pollution and travel. Sustainable tourism aims to strike a balance between the environmental, economic and social effects of tourism. The aim of this article is to find the optimal itinerary for an individual traveller to a congress hotel in Valencia. The main research question is as follows: Which itinerary has the best overall score in terms of CO ₂ per passenger kilometre, travel time and direct cost? Three scenarios were compared: Airplane plus, train plus and car only. The choice of these three suits the travel purpose and length. Literature was used to find the necessary trip and vehicle data. This was fed into a microsimulation model. The main outcome of the simulation experiment is that the environment would benefit if the traveller would favour the train plus scenario. This, however, has a time penalty compared to the airplane plus scenario. A trip by car is the least preferable, because of CO ₂ emissions, travel safety and time. Direct costs of all three scenarios are comparable. Rail has the lowest emissions per passenger in the scenarios, hence it is important that network improvement programs continue and ticket prices stay in line with the price of travelling by car or airplane. An individual traveller was chosen for different reasons. One reason is that after understanding individual touristic travel decisions and their impact, it is a small step to estimate what is feasible if many more individuals would become ecofriendly touristic travellers. A second reason is that it allows an advice for governments and businesses to target individual tourists. Finally, there is the communicative impact of simplification on individual tourists.

@en

Modern societies rely on mass mobility, in particular by private car. Car numbers are growing worldwide due to economic and other factors. Nearly, all have engines that run on fossil fuels. Use of fossil fuels contributes to climate change (via CO ₂-emissions) and local air pollution (primary NO _x- and PM ₁₀-emissions). Both have profound environmental and health implications. The paper explores the technical and behavioural feasibility of zero-emission private car use in The Netherlands in 2030. Base year is 2010. The following research questions are addressed: 1. How much CO ₂, NO _x and PM ₁₀ did passenger cars emit in 2010? 2. How much will this be in 2030? 3. What would these figures be if electric cars become mainstream in 2030? 4. What would the impact be of sustained urbanization on these emissions? 5. How would a greener power mix in electric power plants affect the emissions of CO ₂, NO _x and PM ₁₀ by electric cars? A simulation model was used to quantify a rich set of scenarios. Many car manufacturers aim to produce more (fully) electric vehicles (FEVs) in the coming years. More FEV translates into less (growth in) consumption of fossil fuels and emissions. The remaining emissions are still on the high side. Urbanization may support a further reduction. It reduces car ownership and use and thereby the growth in car kilometres, fossil fuel consumption and emissions. Growing production of renewable energy gradually makes the power mix greener. The most extreme combination of scenarios enables society to reduce CO ₂-emissions far beyond the −50% target in 2030 for the assumed car mobility scenario. The feasibility of this outcome is rather uncertain. An extension of decades of neoliberal, market-first transport policy would very likely slow down the pace of the transition.

@en

Climate change mitigation calls for a massive reduction in CO2-emissions from human sources. A primary human source is combustion of fossil fuels. Transport by road is one of the major and growing users of fossil fuels worldwide. Private cars with internal combustion engines dominate our roads. This paper discusses the feasibility of aligning CO2-emissions of private cars with the Paris
Climate Agreement for 2030. It starts in 2010. Country of study is The Netherlands. The relation between climate change and air pollution is taken aboard. The following research questions will be addressed: How many private cars were there in The Netherlands, how many kilometres were driven and what were their CO2, NOx and PM10 emissions in 2010? What would these values be in the year 2030 assuming continuation of current trends in technology and policy? What could these values be if there were only full electric vehicles (FEV) on the road by 2030? Would behavioural change be necessary to reach the national CO2-reduction target for 2030? In the simulation model assumptions
were used about car ownership and volume, electric cars, fuel efficiency and electricity mix. Car production could be limited to the most fuel-efficient and lowest emission electric cars. Buyers’ choice would become restricted. Fulfilling the Dutch CO2-emission reduction target for 2030 is only possible by using state-of-the-art technology in a fleet of 100% full electric cars (FEV) and a major
reduction in yearly car kilometres (either per car or via fewer cars). This assumes a revolution in car production and sales and an active mobility reduction and modal shift policy. The first has just started, while the second and third are unlikely after decades of liberal policy-making, which has stimulated car mobility by expanding the road network, increasing maximum speeds and cutting
public transport budgets. @en

Regional goods delivery fulfils an essential socio-economic function, in particular, in dense urbanized areas in countries like The Netherlands. Shippers (producers or traders), transport service providers, businesses and private households favour road transport, because of logistic and financial reasons. Delivery and pick-up vehicles are mainly powered by internal combustion engines (ICE). ICE is a major source of ambient air pollution by NOx and PM10 and of global warming (CO2). More recent and well-maintained engines have much lower emissions of NOX and PM10 than older and less well maintained ones, but their CO2-emission has not been reduced as much. With (local) freight transport growing exponentially, these emissions are likely to rise. The aim of the paper is to estimate how a combination of logistic, technical and policy choices may reduce emissions of CO2, NOX and PM10. The authors follow an integrative, interdisciplinary approach, because the past has taught that align- ment of decisions by companies and government is inevitable to effectively deal with the root causes of these emissions. The main research question is as follows: What is needed to reduce the key emissions by regional goods delivery? This was addressed by literature analysis and micro simulation. The lat- ter was used to compare the emissions of diesel, CNG and electricity to power trucks and truck-vans combinations in a region to inner-city delivery scenario. CNG is currently the better option in terms of emissions for the whole trip, largely because of the Dutch grey electric power mix. Replacing the city leg of the trip by vans leads to more emissions, more vehicles, higher parking needs and logistic complexity. Full electric trucks and vans cut out the local air pollution, which is beneficial, but not the emissions by power plants. A green(er) electric power mix is necessary to go to zero emission regional goods delivery.@en

Many people live in cities today. Many more will do so in future. This increases the demand for space and (space for) transport. Space to expand roads is usually scarce. Building tunnels or elevated bridges is very expensive. Solving one bottleneck creates a next bottleneck downstream. More road infrastructure leads to more cars and more cars to more congestion and externalities. Megacities
invest in large-scale (preferably underground) public transport. Smaller cities lack the required number of travellers and the money to warrant the high investment costs. In a sustainable city the supply of goods, services, water, energy and transportation should differ from the current practice.
New car technologies are interesting, in particular the nearly roadworthy self-driving (autonomous) cars. It is still very demanding to let these share roads with conventional cars, cyclists and pedestrians. Cities lack the space for a separate network for these cars, yet. A socially challenging alternative would be to replace all private cars by shared electric self-driving cars and small shuttle
buses and integrate these with mass transport, cycling and walking. Passenger transport would need much less space for driving and parking. Congestion will vanish. Local air pollution, noise and use of resources to produce cars and road materials are reduced. Reclaimed space can be used to create a more sustainable and social environment and to optimize city logistics. The building blocks of such a (public-private) system exist already or will become available in the future.@en

Many people live in cities today. Many more will do so in future. This increases the demand for space and (space for) transport. Space to expand roads is usually scarce. Building tunnels or elevated bridges is very expensive. Solving one bottleneck creates another bottleneck downstream. More road infra- structure leads to more cars and more cars to more congestion and externalities. Megacities invest in large-scale (preferably underground) public transport while smaller cities lack the required number of travellers and the money to warrant the high investment costs. In a sustainable city, the supply of goods, services, water, energy and transportation should differ from the current practice. New technologies in car manufacture are interesting, in particular, the nearly roadworthy self-driving (autonomous) cars. It is still a demanding challenge to let these share roads with conventional cars, cyclists and pedestrians. Currently, cities lack the space for a separate network for these cars. A socially challenging alternative would be to replace all private cars by shared electric self-driving cars and small shuttle buses and inte- grate these with mass transport, cycling and walking. Passenger transport would need much less space for driving and parking. Congestion will vanish. Local air pollution, noise and use of resources to pro- duce cars and road materials will be reduced. Reclaimed space can be used to create a more sustainable and social environment and to optimize city logistics. The building blocks of such a (public–private) system exist already or will become available in the future.@en

Producing more electricity from alternative sources may help to reach four goals: reduce CO2- and other emissions, compensate for depleting resources, reduce political dependency and replace an ageing and inefficient infrastructure. Billions of Euros have to be spent in ‘grey’ or ‘green technology to secure a reliable future supply of electricity. Producing electricity via photovoltaic (PV) systems has an Achilles heel: the sun is not a constant, reliable and manageable source of electric power like a fossil fuelled power plant. Variations in the supplied quantity and quality of electricity per unit of time may have economic (e.g. underutilisation of factories and rationing of consumption), physical (blackouts) and environmental penalties (if fossil fuel based back-up units temporarily ‘kick-in’ to balance demand and supply). Several options might be considered to guarantee a reliable supply of electricity during an energy transition. A drastic increase in energy-efficiency and energy saving measures is technically feasible. and already happening at some scale. It may be the best solution for the environment, but it takes a long time and major investments. Electric cars could be used for mobile storage of electrical energy, alone or combined with fixed storage. The paper addresses 4 issues: The role of a buffer; the pros and cons for individual households of using grid-integrated electric cars; the potential for individual self-sufficiency; the remaining role of government. Buffers are used in an electricity grid to balance demand and supply. Electric cars can fulfil a role as buffer in an electricity grid. This scenario does not provide a stimulus for major energy savings. The alternative scenario of self-sufficiency (‘off-griding), in which solar PV systems and electric cars are combined, is not feasible for an average Dutch household, yet. Under any scenario, the energy transition will change the role of government significantly. @en

Een autonome auto bestond al in een droombeeld van GM in de VS rond 1940. Zo’n 40 jaar verder, in 1977, reed de eerste autonome auto uit een Japans lab. Sinds decennia wordt door ingenieurs gewerkt aan systemen die de autobestuurder overbodig kunnen maken. De stap van zelf rijden naar vanzelf rijden wordt door autofabrikanten ingeleid door in bestaande auto’s extra functies in te bouwen. Het gaat daarbij om bijvoorbeeld parkeerhulp, adaptieve cruise control en uitwisseling van informatie tussen voertuigen, die bestuurders (lastige) lastige taken uit handen nemen. Autonoom rijden vereist in de basis dat een scala van systemen in de auto betrouwbaar samenwerken. Handsfree rijden is technisch mogelijk op speciale wegen, binnen (aparte) rijstroken en onder de juiste weers- en verkeerscondities. Het samen rijden met conventioneel bestuurde auto’s onder variërende weg- en omgevingscondities levert echter enorme uitdagingen op. De interactie met andere auto’s (met en zonder deze systemen) en vooral het veilig kunnen anticiperen op onverwachte situaties vergt een beoordelingsvermogen dat voorlopig alleen aan mensen lijkt voorbehouden. De lopende praktijkproeven, we zijn opnieuw 40 jaar verder, zijn bedoeld om ook dan veilig te kunnen rijden. Zijn auto(snel)wegen al een complexe omgeving, dit geldt nog meer voor steden. Wij poneren echter de stelling dat techniek bij de toelating van autonome auto’s in stedelijke gebieden geen doorslaggevende rol zal spelen. Daar is het van doorslaggevend belang of autonome auto’s onderdeel zouden kunnen zijn van een oplossing voor de vele problemen en uitdagingen die onze steden kennen, zoals groeiend ruimtegebrek, afnemende leefbaarheid en milieukwaliteit, en bereikbaarheid en betaalbaarheid van vervoerssystemen; de stedelijke “systeemwensen/eisen“. De auto krijgt in steden al lang geen vrij baan meer. Na jaren van beleidsmatige twijfel lijkt nu de tijd rijp om een forse stap verder te gaan om de leefbaarheid in steden structureel te verbeteren. Het gebruik van auto’s in steden staat nu ter discussie. De autoindustrie neemt deze “bedreiging” serieus en schuift de autonome auto als reddingsboei naar voren. Dit brengt ons bij de hoofdvragen van dit conceptuele paper: 1) Wat zijn de belangrijkste uitdagingen in onze steden en welke rol speelt verkeer en vervoer daarin? 2) Welke systeemeisen/wensen kunnen hieruit afgeleid worden? 3) Is het wel zo smart om privéauto’s in steden nog zoveel ruimte te geven? 4) Welke rol zouden autonome auto’s kunnen spelen in steden? Het paper eindigt met conclusies en overwegingen voor diverse belanghebbenden. @en