The Abandoned Yellow River Delta (AYD), which formed when the Yellow River flowed into the Southern Yellow Sea between 1128 and 1855 AD, is a representative example of the sensitivity of deltas to modifications in their environments. In this study, we established a process-based morphodynamic model to explore the morphological evolution of one such largescale fine-grained delta (the AYD before 1855). The uncertainties in the model settings, which are inevitable when historical data are insufficient, were assessed together with the corresponding influences on the evolution of the deltaic system by considering a series of scenarios. The results indicate that the strength of local tidal forcing is the key factor that determines the shape and evolutionary trend of the delta. Sediment input discharge and the slope of the initial coastal profile have a considerable effect on the overall size of the delta and the relative ratio between subaerial and subaqueous parts of the delta, respectively. Based on the evaluation of the uncertainties and a comparison with historical maps, the simulated AYD was evaluated to be reliable. Through an analysis of the temporal delta evolution and residual sediment transport, the morphological evolution of the AYD before 1855 AD was investigated. The southern delta grew as the shoals merged with the mainland, which is in agreement with an existing hypothesis (Zhang, 1984), whereas the accretion of the northern delta was independent from the shoals in the northern part. Additionally, suggestions are made regarding the distribution of the AYD at the end of its progradation stage, which provides fundamental information for analyzing subsequent erosion processes since 1855 AD. This study differs from existing studies on the AYD, which are all based on geological approaches. It provides insight into the evolution of the AYD through an alternative means, viz. a process-based morphodynamic-modeling approach. @en

In this study, we aim to investigate the overall morphological evolution of the Jiangsu coast after 1855, when the Yellow River shifted northward. We focus on fine sediment transport between two large-scale geomorphological units, i.e., the Abandoned Yellow River Delta (AYD) and the Radial Sand Ridges (RSRs). An existing morphodynamic model, which was established for reproducing the development of the AYD before 1855, is modified and extended. In addition to the tidal forcing, waves and human interventions (i.e., revetments) are considered in the model. The model results are compared with the existing data. Both the evolution trend of the Jiangsu coast and the spatial distribution of the offshore shoals show good agreement. The simulated fine sediment depositions in different periods are consistent with the geological measurements. The results reveal that the old Yellow River-derived sediment not only contributes to the sedimentation in the RSRs but can also be transported to the adjacent zones, especially farther south/southeast. Moreover, the spatial distribution of fine sediment deposits varies in the RSRs. The different sedimentary environments in the Dongsha and Tiaozini ridges result in significant grain size differences in these two neighboring ridges. A sensitivity analysis indicates that tides play a key role in dominating the long-term morphological evolution of the Jiangsu coast and the total erosion from the AYD. On smaller scales, the effect of revetments (built since the 1930s) on the evolution of the nearshore zone and the effect of wind waves on the erosion of offshore shoals are relatively important. The effect of a gradual coarsening process of bottom sediment along the Jiangsu coast, which may be due to continuous fine sediment removal, is identified. Fine sediment depositions in the Tiaozini ridge and in the northern offshore zone of the RSRs are relatively more sensitive to the coarsening trend of bottom sediment than other areas. @en