Dynamic ecosystems, such as the Amazon forest, are expected to show critical slowing down behavior, or slower recovery from recurrent small perturbations, as they approach an ecological threshold to a different ecosystem state. Drought occurrences are becoming more prevalent across the Amazon, with known negative effects on forest health and functioning, but their actual role in the critical slowing down patterns still remains elusive. In this study, we evaluate the effect of trends in extreme drought occurrences on temporal autocorrelation (TAC) patterns of satellite-derived indices of vegetation activity, an indicator of slowing down, between 2001 and 2019. Differentiating between extreme drought frequency, intensity, and duration, we investigate their respective effects on the slowing down response. Our results indicate that the intensity of extreme droughts is a more important driver of slowing down than their duration, although their impacts vary across the different Amazon regions. In addition, areas with more variable precipitation are already less ecologically stable and need fewer droughts to induce slowing down. We present findings indicating that most of the Amazon region does not show an increasing trend in TAC. However, the predicted increase in extreme drought intensity and frequency could potentially transition significant portions of this ecosystem into a state with altered functionality.

Reduced rainfall increases the risk of forest dieback, while in return forest loss might intensify regional droughts. The consequences of this vegetation-atmosphere feedback for the stability of the Amazon forest are still unclear. Here we show that the risk of self-amplified Amazon forest loss increases nonlinearly with dry-season intensification. We apply a novel complex-network approach, in which Amazon forest patches are linked by observation-based atmospheric water fluxes. Our results suggest that the risk of self-amplified forest loss is reduced with increasing heterogeneity in the response of forest patches to reduced rainfall. Under dry-season Amazonian rainfall reductions, comparable to Last Glacial Maximum conditions, additional forest loss due to self-amplified effects occurs in 10-13% of the Amazon basin. Although our findings do not indicate that the projected rainfall changes for the end of the twenty-first century will lead to complete Amazon dieback, they suggest that frequent extreme drought events have the potential to destabilize large parts of the Amazon forest.