This paper explores the spatial evolution of a flood-prone, sub-urban coastal area, Municipio X of Rome. The study investigates land use change through a diachronic analysis, providing empirical data to retrace the implication of the factors that shaped the study area and highlighting the connection between environmental vulnerabilities and planning measures. Qualitative and quantitative assessments are provided to understand the political and social factors that contributed to rapid urbanization in the area. This investigation aims to grasp how past developments influence current issues and assist planners and decision-makers in tackling present and future vulnerabilities more effectively.

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Urban vulnerability has many facets. Among these, urban texture and plot pattern, building massing and density, greatly affect the microclimate. Thence, redefining urban regeneration design criteria for climate neutrality is crucial, including environmental factors in the design process at different scales. In the light of climate change, despite this urgent call, adaptive design approaches useful to assess trade-offs between urban regeneration scenarios and microclimate quality are lacking. This paper introduces a novel digital design workflow that integrates climate quality and associated indicators in urban and building design, adopting a cross-scale approach. The main goal is to increase the resilience of the built environment in the foresight of future scenarios, by promoting climate-sensitive design solutions. Environmental performances were analysed using digital tools and implemented in a design workflow, allowing urban microclimate analysis. Performance metrics were calculated using Urban Weather Generator and Energy Plus. With the former tool a climate performance comparative study has been run in different scenarios, by varying morphological parameters and computing the intensity of the Urban Heat Island. While, Energy Plus was used to simulate the impact of building form and UHI on building energy demand, highlighting the interdependence of different design scales and addressing optimal building performance. The results provide additional levels of knowledge, both in terms of analysis and design scenario evaluation: urban metrics and climate impacts, building form and envelope design, adaptation solutions. This workflow is tested and a scenario suitability for the Mediterranean city is shown, exploiting the research-by-design transformations of 22@ Innovation District of Barcelona. The paper highlights the correlation between microclimate and design solutions and lays the foundations for a climate/design cross-talk to help policymakers and practitioners achieve urban climate adaptation goals.@en

Cities play a critical role in developing adaptable strategies to address the challenges posed by climate change. However, the inherent complexity of urban environments and their uncertain future conditions necessitate exploring innovative approaches and tools to assist the current planning practices. This paper presents a workflow rooted in model-based scenario planning for long-term adaptation planning given uncertain futures. To demonstrate the workflow's effectiveness, a pertinent case study was conducted in a flood-prone area of Rome. The study employed a land-use change model to examine potential urban growth patterns, considering the uncertain implementation of new poles of attraction. This interdisciplinary study constitutes an initial stride toward implementing uncertainty within urban planning frameworks. Future prospects encompass the integration of multiple models for cross-scale analysis, embracing further critical environmental and social aspects. This research contributes to advancing urban resilience strategies. It enhances the understanding of adapting to an uncertain future in the face of climate change, as urban areas must embrace comprehensive planning to ensure flexible adaptation when faced with climate-driven uncertainties in long-term planning. In conclusion, the study underscores that embracing uncertainty is a challenge and a pivotal opportunity to shape resilient and adaptable urban futures.@en