Debris-flow activity is expected to change in a future climate. In this study we connect a susceptibility model for debris-flows on a regional scale with climate projections until 2100. We use this to assess changes of hydro-meteorological trigger conditions for debris flows in six regions in the Austrian Alps. We find limited changes on an annual basis, but distinct changes when separating between hydro-meteorological trigger types and regions. While regions in the east and in the south of Austria may experience less days susceptible to debris flows in summer, there is a general trend of increasing susceptibility earlier in the year for both, rainfall-related and snow-related trigger conditions. The outcomes of this study serve as a basis for the development of adaption strategies for future risk management from this debris-flow hazard.

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Deep seated landslides are common phenomena in Alpine areas. In case of a direct connectivity with the channel system, the catchment' s sediment yield and the probability of other forms of mass wasting processes such as debris flows may be increased significantly. Up to now, sediment dynamics related to deep-seated landslides and debris flows have not been quantified. The Lattenbach catchment (basin area 5,3 km², relief 2134 m) in Grins (Tyrol, Austria), is an example for an active DF-site, where there is geomorphological evidence of deep-seated landslide activity. In this study we shed light (1) on the location and size of active landslides in the catchment, that may deliver sediment to the channel system. Furthermore, we want to (2) quantify the contributed sediment volumes by these landslides (3) and estimate the exported sediment by debris flow. We apply an image correlation algorithm to high resolution ALS and TLS terrain models of derived over a period of 14 years to calculate surface movement rates within the catchment and locate deep seated landslide activity. We further assess the sediment yield of these landslides to the channel system and relate that with DF-volumes measured by a monitoring station at the catchment outlet. We find that there are five deep-seated landslide bodies directly connected to the channel system in the catchment. These are the largest source of sediment and significantly increases the overall sediment yield of the catchment. Our study shall contribute to the limited knowledge about the importance of deep-seated landslides for sediment dynamics and debris-flow activity, as their presence is predicted to be more frequent in the wake of global warming.

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Debris-flow activity is strongly controlled by hydro-meteorological trigger conditions, which are expected to change in a future climate. In this study we connect a regional hydro-meteorological susceptibility model for debris flows with climate projections until 2100 to assess changes of the frequency of critical trigger conditions for different trigger types (long-lasting rainfall, short-duration storm, snow-melt, rain-on-snow) in six regions in the Austrian Alps. We find limited annual changes of the number of days critical for debris-flow initiation when averaged over all regions, but distinct changes when separating between hydro-meteorological trigger types and study region. Changes become more evident at the monthly/seasonal scale, with a general trend of critical debris-flow trigger conditions earlier in the year. The outcomes of this study serve as a basis for the development of adaption strategies for future risk management.

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Hydrological regimes of alpine catchments are expected to be strongly affected by climate change, mostly due to their dependence on snow and ice dynamics. While seasonal changes have been studied extensively, studies on changes in the timing and magnitude of annual extremes remain rare. This study investigates the effects of climate change on runoff patterns in six contrasting Alpine catchments in Austria using a process-based, semi-distributed hydrological model and projections from 14 regional and global climate model combinations for two representative concentration pathways, namely RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The study catchments represent a spectrum of different hydrological regimes, from pluvial-nival to nivo-glacial, as well as distinct topographies and land forms, characterizing different elevation zones across the eastern Alps to provide a comprehensive picture of future runoff changes. The climate projections are used to model river runoff in 2071-2100, which are then compared to the 1981-2010 reference period for all study catchments. Changes in the timing and magnitude of annual maximum and minimum flows, as well as in monthly runoff and snowmelt, are quantified and analyzed. Our results indicate a substantial shift to earlier occurrences in annual maximum flows by 9 to 31gd and an extension of the potential flood season by 1 to 3 months for high-elevation catchments. For low-elevation catchments, changes in the timing of annual maximum flows are less pronounced. Magnitudes of annual maximum flows are likely to increase by 2g%-18g% under RCP4.5, while no clear changes are projected for four catchments under RCP8.5. The latter is caused by a pronounced increase in evaporation and decrease in snowmelt contributions, which offset increases in precipitation. In the future, minimum annual runoff will occur 13-31gd earlier in the winter months for high-elevation catchments, whereas for low-elevation catchments a shift from winter to autumn by about 15-100gd is projected, with generally larger changes for RCP8.5. While all catchments show an increase in mean magnitude of minimum flows by 7-30% under RCP4.5, this is only the case for four catchments under RCP8.5. Our results suggest a relationship between the elevation of catchments and changes in the timing of annual maximum and minimum flows. For the magnitude of the extreme flows, a relationship is found between catchment elevation and annual minimum flows, whereas this relationship is lacking between elevation and annual maximum flow.

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Torrential processes like fluvial flows (flash floods with or without intensive sediment transport) and debris flows can represent a threat to people and infrastructure in alpine domains. Up to now the hydro-meteorological trigger conditions and their connection with geomorphic watershed characteristics that favor the initiation of either process are largely unknown. Based on modeled wetness states we determined the trigger types (long-lasting rainfall (LLR), short-duration storm (SDS) and intense snow melt (SM)) of 360 observed debris flow and fluvial flood events in six climatically and geomorphologically contrasting watersheds in Austria. Results show that the watershed wetness states play very distinct roles for triggering torrential events across the study regions. Hydro-meteorological variables have little power to explain the occurrence of fluvial flows and debris flows in these regions. Nevertheless, trigger type separation highlighted some geomorphic influences. For example, intense SM triggered more events in sub-watersheds (torrential watersheds in the study region) that are characterized by significantly higher Melton ruggedness numbers than LLR does. In addition, the data show that events triggered by LLRs occur in sub-watersheds of similar exposures (aspects) other than SDS. The results suggest that the consideration of different trigger types provides valuable information for engineering risk assessment.

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Different factors influence the disposition of a watershed for initiation of debris flows, including meteorological trigger conditions as well as the hydrologic and geomorphic disposition. The latter includes slowly changing factors like relief energy or sediment availability, whereas the hydrologic state of a watershed may vary over short time scales. This contribution summarizes the outcomes of a long term project to quantify meteorological and hydrological trigger conditions leading to debris flows at different temporal and spatial scales in the Austrian Alps. The analysis employs a database of more than 4,500 debris flows over the last 100+ years, which is the period for which systematic rainfall data is available. A Bayesian analysis was carried out for determining occurrence probabilities for all Austria. For selected regions, hydrological trigger conditions were assessed using a semi-distributed, conceptual rainfall-runoff model, which was calibrated to measured runoff data. As expected we find increasing trigger probabilities with increasing rainfall amounts and intensities. However, the additional information of regional hydrological parameters as well as their temporal evolution over days prior to a debris-flow event, enables to capture different trigger conditions, including short duration rainstorms, long lasting rainfall events, and snow melt. We also find that a trigger-type resolved prediction of debris-flow susceptibility based on the hydro-meteorological catchment information is superior to simple rainfall-only approaches. The results of this analysis shall improve our understanding of long-term trigger conditions and trends of extreme mass wasting processes in the Alps and aim to become a valuable tool in engineering hazard assessment.@en

Debris flows represent frequent hazards in mountain regions. Though significant effort has been made to predict such events, the trigger conditions as well as the hydrologic disposition of a watershed at the time of debris flow occurrence are not well understood. Traditional intensity-duration threshold techniques to establish trigger conditions generally do not account for distinct influences of rainfall, snowmelt, and antecedent moisture. To improve our knowledge on the connection between debris flow initiation and the hydrologic system at a regional scale, this study explores the use of a semi-distributed conceptual rainfall-runoff model, linking different system variables such as soil moisture, snowmelt, or runoff with documented debris flow events in the inner Pitztal watershed, Austria. The model was run on a daily basis between 1953 and 2012. Analysing a range of modelled system state and flux variables at days on which debris flows occurred, three distinct dominant trigger mechanisms could be clearly identified. While the results suggest that for 68% (17 out of 25) of the observed debris flow events during the study period high-intensity rainfall was the dominant trigger, snowmelt was identified as the dominant trigger for 24% (6 out of 25) of the observed debris flow events. In addition, 8% (2 out of 25) of the debris flow events could be attributed to the combined effects of low-intensity, long-lasting rainfall and transient storage of this water, causing elevated antecedent soil moisture conditions. The results also suggest a relatively clear temporal separation between the distinct trigger mechanisms, with high-intensity rainfall as a trigger being limited to mid- A nd late summer. The dominant trigger in late spring/early summer is snowmelt. Based on the discrimination between different modelled system states and fluxes and, more specifically, their temporally varying importance relative to each other, this exploratory study demonstrates that already the use of a relatively simple hydrological model can prove useful to gain some more insight into the importance of distinct debris flow trigger mechanisms. This highlights in particular the relevance of snowmelt contributions and the switch between mechanisms during early to mid-summer in snow-dominated systems.

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Debris flows are typically triggered by rainfall-related weather conditions—including short-duration storms and long-lasting rainfall, in cold climates sometimes in connection with intensive snowmelt. Given the considerable observational uncertainties of rainfall, we tested if other hydrometeorological variables carry enough information content to compensate for these uncertainties and if the combined information of hydrologic catchment state and rainfall can be used to predict the regional temporal susceptibility for debris flow initiation. For this we carried out a probabilistic analysis of variables derived from a conceptual hydrological model for the Montafon region, Austria, where debris flows were recorded on 41 days between 1953 and 2013. Exclusively from hydrological characteristics and, importantly, neglecting precipitation itself, we quantitatively determined different trigger types for historical debris flows. Subsequently, we used four Naive Bayes classifier models, ranging from a simple rainfall-only model to a multiparameter hydrometeorological model differentiating between trigger types, to predict days susceptible for debris flow occurrence in the region. The results suggest that debris flows were triggered by convective rainstorm events on 23 days, on 12 days due to gradual soil moisture buildup in the course of long-lasting rainfall events and on six further days snowmelt played an important role. We find that the differences between the trigger types are statistically significant and that a susceptibility prediction differentiating between trigger types and including hydrological information can outperform simple rainfall-only models. This study thereby contributes to an improved understanding of the hydrometeorological impact on debris flow initiation in a mountain watershed.

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Debris flows and flash floods including intensive bedload transport represent severe hazards in the Alpine environment of Austria. For neither of these processes, explicit rainfall thresholds – even for specific regions – are available. This may be due to insufficient data on the temporal and spatial variation of precipitation, but probably also due to variations of the geomorphic and hydrological disposition of a watershed to produce such processes in the course of a rainfall event. In this contribution we investigate the importance of the hydrological system state for triggering debris flows and flash floods in the Ill/Suggadin watershed (500 km2 ), Austria, by analyzing the effects of dynamics in system state variables such as soil moisture, snow pack, or ground water level. The analysis is based on a semi-distributed conceptual rainfall-runoff model, spatially discretizing the watershed according to the available precipitation observations, elevation, topographic considerations and land cover. Input data are available from six weather stations on a daily basis ranging back to 1947. A Thiessen polygon decomposition results in six individual precipitation zones with a maximum area of about 130 km2 . Elevation specific behavior of the quantities temperature and precipitation is covered through an elevation-resolved computation every 200 m. Spatial heterogeneity is considered by distinct hydrological response units for bare rock, forest, grassland, and riparian zone. To reduce numerical smearing on the hydrological results, the Implicit Euler scheme was used to discretize the balance equations. For model calibration we utilized runoff hydrographs, snow cover data as well as prior parameter and process constraints. The obtained hydrological output variables are linked to documented observed flash flood and debris flow events by means of a multivariate logistic regression. We present a summary about the daily hydrological disposition of experiencing a flash flood or debris flow event in each precipitation zone of the Ill/Suggadin region over almost 65 years. Furthermore, we will provide an interpretation of the occurred hydrological trigger patterns and show a frequency ranking. The outcomes of this study shall lead to an improved forecasting and differentiation of trigger conditions leading to debris flows and flash floods.@en