In the last few years, several events have highlighted the risk of possible major accidents triggered by terrorist attacks within chemical and process facilities. Due to the increased attention for security issues, an optimal allocation of security measures, including related cost issues, becomes progressively more important. Despite the existence of economic models for supporting decision-making processes in general, for instance cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analyses, no specific economic models are available in the domain of operational security (including counter-terrorism decision-making) to be applied within the chemical and process industry. In this study, a novel method for cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analysis for the allocation of physical security measures was elaborated and tested using a case study. Starting from a site-specific analysis of the baseline physical security system performance, the model allows comparing and evaluating the costs of different security upgrades with the (hypothetical) benefits related to the avoided losses. The approach developed enables selecting economically feasible security measures, or a combination of such measures with a maximum net present value, within the budget constraints of a chemical plant.@en

Several recent events raised the attention toward possible major accidents triggered by external acts of interference in industrial facilities. In particular, a growing concern is present with respect to the intentional release of dangerous substances resulting in environmental and eco-terroristic attacks. Therefore, optimal selection and allocation of preventive security measures is becoming more important for decision-makers. Despite the existence of economic models supporting the decision-making process, their applications within the chemical industry security context are relatively limited. This study describes a specific model for economic analysis and selection of physical security measures, with respect to potential environmental and eco-terroristic attacks in chemical facilities. An example of application to a relevant case study is presented to show the model capabilities. Site-specific analysis of the baseline physical security system performance allows comparing the costs of different security upgrades with the benefits related to either prospective or retrospective losses, meanwhile accounting the uncertainties related to the threat probability. Selection of the most profitable security measures within budget constraints and definition of economic indicators are the main outputs of the model, in order to support decision-making processes for allocation of security barriers.

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