In the face of climate change, a major challenge is to inform and guide long-term climate change adaptation planning under deep uncertainty, while aiming at transformative change. Normative futures studies approaches, such as participatory backcasting, visioning and transition management, are increasingly applied, but their potential for climate change adaptation research and practice remains undervalued. This paper aims to advance the potential of backcasting in climate adaptation, by comparing various climate change adaptation studies that have used backcasting or visioning approaches. A framework has been further developed and applied to evaluate 10 cases in Africa, Europe and North America, using four dimensions: (i) inputs and settings; (ii) process and methods (iii) results, and (iv), impact. Our evaluation provides key insights into the use and further development of backcasting for climate adaptation. Key elements to add are advanced system modeling, robust elements, pathway switching and hybrid pathways, enhancing participation of marginal groups, and contributing to impact by facilitating the utilization of results and knowledge in practice and decision making.@en

The current COVID-19 pandemic has affected societies across the world while its economic impact has cut deeper than any recession since the Second World War. Climate change is potentially an even more disruptive and complex global challenge. Climate change could cause social and economic damage far larger than that caused by COVID-19. The current pandemic has highlighted the extent to which societies need to prepare for disruptive global environmental crises. Although the dynamics of combating COVID-19 and climate change are different, the priorities for action are the same: behavioral change, international cooperation to manage shared challenges, and technology's role in advancing solutions. For a sustainable recovery from the COVID-19 crisis to be durable and resilient, a return to ‘business as usual’ and the subsequent often environmentally destructive economic activities must be avoided as they have significantly contributed to climate change. To avoid this, we draw lessons from the experiences of the waves of the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond to advance sustainable development.

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This paper analyses five major transitions in watershed management in the Lower Mississippi River from the early 19th century to the present. A conceptual framework is developed for analysing the role of visions, agency, and niches in water management transitions and applied to a historical case on water management in the Lower Mississippi River. It is shown that water management regimes change over time and that major transitions were preceded by niches, in which new visions were developed and empowered. The case shows that: (i) emerging visions play an important role in guiding transitions; (ii) agency enables the further diffusion of visions and niches; (iii) vision champions play an important role in transitions, but are not decisive; (iv) each transition has led to an extension of the number of societal functions provided, which has led to more complex water management regimes in which functions are combined and integrated; and (v) external landscape factors are important, as they can lead to awareness and urgency in important decision making processes.

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The paper reports on a comparative study of three different cases on vision and strategy development for climate change adaptation planning in (i) The South African Breede–Overberg Catchment, (ii) The Mississippi Estuary-New Orleans region and (iii) The Dutch Rhine-Meuse Estuary. The objective of the paper is twofold: to develop a better understanding of such processes and to further develop the Backcasting-Adaptive Management (BCAM) methodology. A framework for case evaluation is developed using six dimensions: (i) inputs and resources, (ii) future vision, (iii) stakeholder engagement, (iv) methodological aspects, (v) pathway development and (vi) impact. Major conclusions based on a cross-case comparison and testing propositions are (i) participatory vision development is a strong tool for climate change adaptation planning in different governance contexts and shows considerable diversity in its application in these contexts; (ii) a single, shared future vision is not a prerequisite for vision and pathway development and endorsement; (iii) broad stakeholder engagement enriches strategy development, but the involvement of marginal groups requires additional efforts and capacity building; (iv) multiple pathways and robust elements are useful but require novel expertise; and (v) more institutional embeddedness and support for participatory processes lead to better implementation of the outcomes of these processes.

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