Understanding lay people’s flood risk perceptions has become an essential component of flood risk management especially with respect to ascertaining possible responses both to risk situations and to government actions. However, different contextual factors determine how they respond, and little has been done in the African urban context to study flood risk perception trends. Using data from 612 household questionnaires, this paper documents the hazard-related and cognitive factors of flood risk perception (measured using perceived likelihood of flood-induced property damage, as the dependent variable) in 3 neighbourhoods of Kampala, Uganda. Correlation and ordinal regression analysis established a positive influence of flood experience on flood risk perception in 2 of the neighbourhoods. In contrast, it has a negative influence in the third neighbourhood, which also goes for existing mitigation measures. However, in the latter, flood-induced property damage and existing mitigation measures showed a positive influence. Additionally, flood-induced financial costs positively influence risk perception in two of the three neighborhoods. These differences are associated with case characteristics, including the widening of drainage channels and socio-economic characteristics, and partially confirm the findings from previous studies. The contextual trends provide insights to improve the application of the Protection Motivation Theory.@en

With the trends of increasing flood risk due to climate change and rapid urbanisation in many parts of the world, property level mitigation efforts have become more relevant in flood risk management. However, the flood mitigation behaviour of business owners is an understudied aspect of risk reduction. This article employs the Protection Motivation Theory framework to identify critical factors that determine the flood damage mitigation behaviour of micro, small and medium enterprises in three neighbourhoods of Kampala, Uganda. We conducted a sample survey of micro to medium-sized business owners in two informal areas and one formal area in Kampala. Our analysis established that businesses of all sizes adopted structural measures and that micro-enterprises (0–4 employees) were more likely to implement non-structural measures than small businesses. Financial losses, risk aversion, and perceptions of flood likelihood all showed positive relationships with flood damage mitigation actions. Many businesses indicated that relocation is an inefficient and costly measure, though one that is easily self-implementable. Information-seeking behaviour and receiving flood-related information stimulated businesses to mitigate, though few businesses have regular access to helpful information regarding flood mitigation measures, especially concerning non-structural measures. These insights provide a basis for crafting business resilience-building policy and strategies considering increasing climate change-induced flash-flood risk in Kampala and other similar contexts.

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