Climate change has a direct influence on both hydrology and floodplain vegetation of water courses, which are key players in river morphodynamics. The river system response to climate change is complex and the effects of non-linear interactions between alterations in water, sediment and vegetation remain incompletely understood. Which of these components becomes dominant in shaping the river channel when climate becomes drier or wetter? To answer this question, we investigate the cross-sectional response of sand-bed rivers to climate change focusing on channel width and depth, which respond directly to changes in boundary stresses. Thanks to the exceptional availability of long time-series of daily discharge and cross-sectional profiles, the Pilcomayo River is an ideal living lab for this investigation. We constructed a two-dimensional model of the river using the open-source state-of-the-art, structured Delft3D code. The highly dynamic behaviour and quick morphological adaptation of the Pilcomayo allowed reducing the period of time covered by the simulations because the river cross-section adapts its morphology to a new value of the water discharge within hours or days, which is crucial for modelling investigations. Calibration and validation were successfully performed by comparison with historical data. We considered several scenarios representing current, dryer and wetter climates. The results show that a dryer climate reduces the river channel depth and enlarges the width. A wetter climate increases the channel depth but produces negligible widening. Vegetation, sparser with a drier climate and denser with a wetter climate, is found to control the channel width. This analysis is unique and shows which alterations can be expected in alluvial sand-bed rivers with natural vegetated banks due to climate change.

The Lower Mara River and Wetland, Tanzania, is an important ecosystem and unique water resource for a vast semi-arid area. The river, an affluent of Lake Victoria, and the wetland are experiencing morphological and vegetation changes resulting in channel avulsions and wetland expansion. This study analyses the changes over the last 100 years and investigates natural and anthropogenic behaviors to explain the increase of the Mara Wetland area. We collated historical topographic maps and satellite images. We conducted two field surveys in low and high flow condition with an unmanned aerial vehicle, a sonar and an ADCP. We mapped selected areas as well as the bed topography in some stretches of the river, measured discharges, and collected river bed and suspended sediment samples. The analysis of the sediments shows that the wetland system, dominated by papyrus sp., is very efficient in trapping sediment, releasing clear water to the Lake Victoria. The historical reconstruction using topographic maps, satellite images and a multivariable analysis including hydrology and land cover, shows that 4 major avulsions occurred in the last 70 years due to a combination of natural behaviors, hydrological fluctuations and anthropogenic factors such as basin deforestation, farming and grazing along the river banks and in the wetland. Each avulsion led to substantial expansion of the wetland. Combined, they increased the wetland area by a factor of 3.6. Describing the Lower Mara River dynamic behavior, this work provides relevant information for sustainable future water and sediment management in order to preserve wetland habitats and natural resources.