The estimation of failure probability is challenging in hydrogen embrittlement in steel pipelines due to the complexity of the synergistic effect of multiple factors. The present study proposed a hybrid methodology to estimate the failure probability of steel pipelines due to hydrogen embrittlement. The methodology integrates the fault tree analysis with a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Fault tree analysis captures the logical relationships between influencing indicators to develop a new assessment model of hydrogen embrittlement in steel pipelines. An improved fuzzy fault tree analysis method was proposed to process aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties to estimate the probability of each basic event due to the difficulty in obtaining the actual probabilities. The failure probability of blended hydrogen natural gas pipelines was estimated by considering the correlation of events. A case study demonstrated the applicability of the proposed method. Maintenance measures can be implemented according to the evaluation results to ensure pipeline safety.

In this work, a 3D finite element (FE) based model was developed to assess the condition of an underground hydrogen transmission pipeline containing a corrosion defect under combined internal pressure and soil movement-induced axial compression. The use of mechanical properties of X100 pipeline steel under different hydrogen charging time models the degree of hydrogen damage in pipelines. Parameter effects, i.e., axial compressive stress, hydrogen damage, defect geometries, and pipeline diameter-to-thickness ratio, were determined. The results demonstrated that the synergistic effect of axial compression, internal pressure, corrosion, and hydrogen damage can lead to a significant decrease in the failure pressure of pipelines. The failure pressure decreased with the wall thickness reduction and increased hydrogen damage, axial compressive stress, defect length, defect depth, and pipe diameter. The competitive effect was observed between the degree of metal loss and hydrogen damage in determining the burst capacity of pipelines. In situations where the pipeline integrity was severely compromised, the failure pressure exhibited minimal reduction despite the increasing severity of hydrogen damage. The stress distribution at the defect zone was influenced by axial compressive stress but remained unaffected by hydrogen damage under normal operating conditions (i.e., an internal pressure of 10 MPa). This work is expected to help operators understand the applicability of elder and in-service pipelines for hydrogen transmission.