Multiscale simulation of fluvio-deltaic stratigraphy was used to quantify the elements of the geometry and architectural arrangement of sub-seismic-scale fluvial-to-shelf sedimentary segments. We conducted numerical experiments of fluvio-deltaic system evolution by simulating the accommodation-to-sediment-supply (A/S) cycles of varying wavelength and amplitude with the objective to produce synthetic 3-D stratigraphic records. Post-processing routines were developed in order to investigate delta lobe architecture in relation to channel-network evolution throughout A/S cycles, estimate net sediment accumulation rates in 3-D space, and extract chronostratigraphically constrained lithosomes (or chronosomes) to quantify large-scale connectivity, that is, the spatial distribution of high net-to-gross lithologies. Chronosomes formed under the conditions of channel-belt aggradation are separated by laterally continuous abandonment surfaces associated with major avulsions and delta-lobe switches. Chronosomes corresponding to periods in which sea level drops below the inherited shelf break, that is, the youngest portions of the late falling stage systems tract (FSST), form in the virtual absence of major avulsions, owing to the incision in their upstream parts, and thus display purely degradational architecture. Detailed investigation of chronosomes within the late FSST showed that their spatial continuity may be disrupted by higher-frequency A/S cycles to produce “stranded” sand-rich bodies encased in shales. Chronosomes formed during early and late falling stage (FSST) demonstrate the highest large-scale connectivity in their proximal and distal areas, respectively. Lower-amplitude base level changes, representative of greenhouse periods during which the shelf break is not exposed, increase the magnitude of delta-lobe switching and favour the development of system-wide abandonment surfaces, whose expression in real-world stratigraphy is likely to reflect the intertwined effects of high-frequency allogenic forcing and differential subsidence.

Stratigraphic forward modelling (SFM) provides the means to produce geologically coherent and realistic models. In this paper, we demonstrate the possibility of matching lithological variability simulated with a basin-scale advection-diffusion SFM to a data-rich real-world setting, i.e. the Holocene Rhine-Meuse fluvio-deltaic system in the Netherlands. SFM model calibration to real-world data in general has proven non-trivial. This study focuses on a novel inversion process constrained by the top surface and the sand proportion observed at specific pseudo-wells in the study area. Goodness-of-fit expressed by a new fitness function gives the error calculated as the average of two calibration constraints. Computational efficiency was increased significantly by implementing a new optimization process in two hierarchical steps: a) optimization in terms of sediment load and discharge, which are the most influential parameters having the largest uncertainty and b) optimization with respect to the remaining uncertain parameters, these being sediment transport parameters. The calibration process described allows for the most optimal combination of achieving acceptable levels of goodness-of-fit, feasible runtimes and multiple (non-unique) solutions to obtain synthetic stratigraphic output best matching real-world datasets. By removing model realizations which are geologically unrealistic, calibrated SFM models provide a multiscale stratigraphic framework for reconstructing static models of reservoirs which are consistent with the palaeogeographic layout, basin-fill history and external drivers (e.g. sea level, sediment supply). The static reservoir models that are matched with highest certainty therefore contain the highest geological realism and may be used to improve deep subsurface reservoir or aquifer property prediction. The new methodology was applied to the well-established Holocene Rhine-Meuse dataset, which allows a rigorous testing of the optimization; the calibrated SFM allows investigation of controls of the Holocene development on the sedimentary system.