The increasing demand for energy and the high probability of finding vast reserves have shifted offshore exploration and production activity into colder and harsher environments. Offshore activity increases risk of oil spills in these colder and harsher marine environments. The development of a spill contingency plan requires the prediction of fate and transport of oil. Oil spill trajectory and fate modeling in cold marine environments is an exceedingly complex problem, in which variability of physical environment and oil-ice interactions must be addressed. This paper explores the usefulness of the fugacity approach for spill fate and transport modeling in ice-infested waters through a simulation model that combines surface oil weathering algorithms with Level IV fugacity models. Four bulk compartments are used for modeling: air, ice cover, water and sediment. Weathering of surface oil on and under the ice cover is represented by a system of differential equations. Unsteady state mass balance equations are also developed for each of the four bulk phases. The outputs of the multimedia fate model are time-dependent profiles of oil slick area, fraction evaporated, water content in oil, viscosity, and concentration of oil in air, ice cover, water, and sediment. The application of the proposed model is illustrated through the simulation of a hypothetical oil spill in the Labrador Sea. The proposed model is simple but has the promise that it can be further developed to become directly useful to the simulation of spill behavior in ice-infested waters.

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Arctic waters have historically been relatively inaccessible for marine transport. Lately, climate change has made more of this region ice-free in the summer season. This has reduced the difficulty of marine transport in Arctic waters. Further, exploration and development of natural resources is increasing in Arctic regions, as is destinational shipping. The unique risk factors of this region, such as extremely low temperature, ice conditions and drifting icebergs, continue to pose threats to transportation. Potential impacts associated with marine transportation accidents warrant contingency plans that recognize that preventative measures may fail. To plan effectively, a transportation accident risk assessment model for Arctic waters is helpful. There is limited work on the development of such models. A new cause-consequences based risk assessment model is proposed here. The model estimates the probability of a transportation accident and also the related consequences during navigation in Arctic waters. To illustrate the application of the methodology, it is applied to a case of an oil-tanker collision on the Northern Sea Route.@en