This study focussed on the position of the Coal-to-Gas (CtG) transition of Almaty (Kazakhstan) within its wider energy goals to become energy neutral in 2060. Within CtG-transition the focus was mainly on the biggest coal-based power plant (CHP-2) of the city, which is planned to convert gas-based energy production.

The methodology consist of a multidisciplinary analysis that includes three
fundamental dimensions of energy transitions, the socio-technical, techno-economic and political dimension. These dimensions are first individually analysed, to later interpret the outcomes and their interrelatedness. The analysis consist of qualitative desk research, and descriptive and correlational quantitative analysis. Research is conducted with secondary data sources. Prior to studying the three dimensions, specifics of the CtG-transition and Almaty’s current energy situation are described.

The techno-economic dimension is characterised by the sufficiency potential of renewable energy in the region of Almaty. Various analysis have concluded that a RES alternative based on solar and wind energy is favourable from a financial and carbon emission point of view. Implementation of solar and wind as compensation for CHP-2 appears to be technically feasible for Almaty. The socio-technical dimension is identified by the emergence of new technologies(RES) within the embedded existing energy system (coal and gas-based). For Almaty, this dimension is typified by being stuck in a carbon lock-in. The obsolete infrastructure and need for financial investment provide a possibility to breach this lock-in and avoid renewed path dependence towards fossil energy. However, currently there is a lack of sufficient RES stimulating measures, and the existing are insufficient to compete with fossil energy. Various arguments promote for RES stimulation on the long term, such as decreasing the fossil fuel dependency, (inter)national climate ambitions, fast energy transition activities of major trade partners, and a change to diversify economic activity. The political dimension explains the political landscape of the city, consisting of current policies, stated ambitions, and political dynamics. For Almaty, action in the political dimension is
required to catalyse the energy transition, promote RES implementation, to breach with the carbon lock-in and to prevent renewed path dependence on fossil energy. Political actors have to decide between short term economic growth and political stability, or long term planning towards a sustainable and diversified energy system. Two policy cycles have to be adapted. First, regulations of fossil fuel energies have to gradually be phased out. However, a gradual and slow change is required since economic growth and political stability are major drivers of these regulations. Second, stimulating policy for RES development and implementation are required. Currently RES cannot compete with fossil fuel alternatives, and therefore cannot penetrate the heavily fossil oriented market.

Current energy systems contains many barriers that oppose to reaching the energy climate goals of Almaty. Most important is to breach the dependency on fossil energy from an economic, technical, and political point of view. This dependency is identified as a carbon lock-in, and additional investments in Almaty’s gas-based energy infrastructure lead to path renewed path dependence on fossil fuels, and a remained carbon lock-in. Implementing solar and wind energy as alternative of the CHP-2 conversion is an important step towards breaching the carbon-lock in and stimulating RES. Therefore local government should considering heavily investing in implementation of renewable alternatives instead of using CHP-2, in order to seriously work towards the climate ambitions, and to prevent another carbon lock-in.