The river Rhine is one of Europe’s busiest waterways and is part of the Rhine-Alpine corridor. In 2018 the river experienced a severe low discharge extreme. This impacted the river’s transport capacity for a period of several months, causing shortages of source materials and fuels in regions far in-land. Historically, prolonged droughts of this magnitude are not uncommon. Concerns have been raised, however, that climate change may further increase their frequency and severity. Additionally the increased proportion of larger vessels in the overall fleet composition has made the supply of cargo via the river Rhine more vulnerable to reduced water depths. A better understanding of the risks and effects of sustained low water levels for Inland Waterway Transport network performance is therefore essential to enable sensible mitigation. An integral model that explicitly links the state of the river to supply chain performance at the scale of corridors, however, appears to be not yet available. This paper suggests a novel method to explicitly include the cascading effects of low discharge events (and mitigating measures) in climate risk assessments of waterborne supply chain performance, at system level. It is shown that its implementation can describe cascading effects and climate risks for fleet management and terminal operation.@en

Purpose: The paper aims to present an integrated foresight framework and method to support decision-makers who are confronted with today’s complex and rapidly changing world. The method aims at reducing the degree of uncertainty by addressing the inertia or duration of unfolding trends and by placing individual trends in a broader context. Design/methodology/approach: The paper presents a three-layered framework and method for assessing megatrends based on their inertia or duration. It suggests that if long-term trends and key future uncertainties are studied in conjunction at a meta-level and placed in a broader multi-layered framework of trends, it can result in new insights. Findings: The application of the proposed foresight method helps to systematically place a wide range of unrelated trends and key uncertainties in the context of a broader framework of trends, thereby improving the ability to understand the inertia, direction and mutual interaction of these trends. Research limitations/implications: The elaboration of identified trends and key uncertainties is partly case-specific and subject to interpretation. It is aimed at illustrating the potential use of the framework. Practical implications: The paper presents a new approach that may, by itself or in combination with existing foresight methods, offer new means for anticipating future developments. Social implications: The use of the proposed framework has potential to provide better insight in the complexity of today’s rapid-changing world and the major transitions taking place. It aims to result in sharper foresight by reducing epistemic uncertainty for decision-makers. Originality/value: The paper demonstrates how megatrends, Kondratieff waves and century-long trends can be placed in an integrated framework and analysed in conjunction.

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Prolonged periods of drought affect river discharges and cause water levels and available water depth to drop for extended periods of time. Low water depth has a major impact on the loading capacity of inland ships, and as a consequence on the transport capacity of the overall waterborne supply chain. Individual ship owners have detailed knowledge on how much the draught of their ship and the associated cargo weight should be reduced to adapt to low water. These parameters are even adjusted as a function of environmental circumstances (e.g. composition of the riverbed) and type of cargo. This detailed knowledge is, however, not accessible at an aggregated level to assess the effects on the overall transport capacity of an inland waterway transport network. Based on a range of field observations and information collected from individual ships, this article introduces a general model to define the effect of low water constraints on the deadweight and payload of inland ships, for which only the type, length, and beam of the vessel serve as mandatory input. Availability of a general model of the capacity reducing effect of lowered water depth is important for the design and operation of robust transport chains on the one hand, and for the optimisation of fairway maintenance and long-term infrastructure development on the other.

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Policymakers need to make policies for an uncertain future, and policy analysts assist policymakers in choosing preferred courses of action. Despite a longstanding recognition that the futures field can contribute a great deal to policy analysis, futures work is not used to its full potential as an element of policy analysis. This is partly due to an absence of well-defined links between the fields and a common unambiguous typology. This paper proposes a framework for linking policy analysis, policymaking, and the futures field so that they can benefit mutually from a shared approach and tools. This integrated framework is intended to guide policy analysts on the appropriate use of futures approaches so that they can improve their analyses and contribute to better policies. At the same time, futures practitioners will be encouraged to align their approaches with the needs of policy analysts, thereby leading to increased uptake of futures work in policy analysis.@en

Beleidsmakers, ondernemers en onderzoekers werden de afgelopen jaren al geconfronteerd met tal van uitdagingen rondom klimaatverandering en verduurzaming, maar daar is met het Coronavirus nu een nog grotere uitdaging bijgekomen. Er is duidelijk behoefte om grip te krijgen op de duur en impact van het virus. Dit document beoogt de mogelijke ontwikkelingen in kaart te brengen door middel van een drietal globale scenario’s. Deze scenario’s kunnen gebruikt worden als input voor een aantal meer sectorspecifieke scenario’s, zoals bijvoorbeeld voor het vervoer over water, de sector waar de auteur zelf werkzaam in is.@en

In the present turbulent environment highlighted by energy transition, disruptive technology, and climate change impacts, adaptability and robustness are essential in long-term planning of infrastructures. This also applies to inland ports, which play an important role in the Dutch transport system. Inland ports have three major functions, i.e., transfer of goods, storage of goods, and eventually, facilitating (industrial) production of goods. A well-functioning inland port can contribute to efficient supply chains by offering multi-modal capabilities and value-added services, and importantly, contribute to a modal shift from road to environmentally friendly inland shipping.@en

Inland Water Transport (IWT) is one of the modalities for freight transport between the ports of Rotterdam, Amsterdam, Antwerp and the hinterland in Germany. Transport over water between these areas is possible as a result of the presence of the Rhine, but more important are the navigation conditions on the river. As a result of climate change, these navigable conditions on the river will deteriorate in the future by lower extreme river discharges and sea level rise. The available navigable water depth will decrease on the Rhine branches Waal, Nederrijn en IUssel due to lower river discharges in dry periods, while the available head clearance under bridges becomes smaller for transport of containers in the Rhine-Meuse-delta. The worsening navigable conditions are amplified by long term-processes in the river system and trends in the freight transport sector. This will lead to the reduction of load capacity of vessels, an increase of travel time and travel costs. Stakeholders in the IWT-sector (port authorities, waterway authorities, shippers and barge operators) have the urgency to find out where potential bottlenecks may arise in the future and to develop mitigation measures. In the current literature numerical models are applied to assess the impact of climate change on Inland Water Transport for specific relations or processes. Simulations with those models is executed for one climate scenario or one time horizon for a larger part of the IWT -network. Other researchers make use of analytical relations applied on one or two bottlenecks for multiple climate scenarios and time horizons. An integral assessment to setup an overview of potential bottlenecks for multiple climate scenarios and time horizons based on an integrated model is lacking. In this project an integrated assessment meta-model is built to examine navigation conditions as a result of climate change and the impact on IWT. The focus of the first part of the project is to assess the climate change impacts on IWT. In the second part the aim is to develop and assess a number of mitigation measures. In this paper, first, an analysis of potential bottlenecks is executed. As a case study, the integrated assessment meta-model is applied on the river branches Waal and IUssel for one climate scenario and time horizon. The results give insight into the locations where problems will occur for navigation conditions and mitigation measures are needed to improve the conditions in case of low river discharges. The method and model will be applied for the assessment of mitigation measures in the second phase of the research project. The outcomes of the two research phases shall be used to define policies by waterway manager Rijkswaterstaat for efficient IWT in the future over the river Rhine or to develop new logistic concepts by ports, shipping companies or barge operators.@en

This report presents a new three step approach for developing a shared vision on the future development of the port of Rotterdam. The first step concerns a novel three layered framework for analysing future developments. In this step relevant trends are identified and placed in a broader 'meta'-perspective of a three layered framework, whereby different layers relate to trends of varying inertia (or duration). This multi-layered approach results in a sharper view of the future, which narrows down the ‘plausible’ future space. The second step concerns a new approach in which trend based narratives are used to identify threats and opportunities for the port. The insights from the three layered trend analysis are translated into sixteen well-structured storylines or ‘narratives’, that take the strengths and weaknesses of the port of Rotterdam as a starting point and thus address threats and opportunities specific to the port. The narratives indicate which activities are likely to claim scarce space in the port over the next two decades. They help to form ideas about a future-proof clustering of activities, the required space in the port, as well as the required infrastructure and utilities. The third step concerns creating a spatial development strategy based on the insights provided by the narratives.@en

Policymakers need to make policies for unknown and uncertain futures. Researchers in the futures field have a great deal to contribute to the policymaking process. But, futures research is often neglected as an element of policymaking. The aim of this paper is to improve the link between futures research and policymaking. More specifically, as Policy Analysis has a strong link with policymaking, this paper explores the possibility of linking Policy Analysis to the futures field through the use of an uncertainty typology applied in Policy Analysis. The typology can be used to structure the various forward-looking disciplines (or subfields) of the futures field according to the level of uncertainty that they address. This linkage can add significantly to the use of futures research in policymaking.

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Transport time and cost are decisive factors for shippers when they choose a mode for their transport. For inland waterway transport in particular, these aspects are more uncertain and less easy to generalize than for road and rail. This is due to the highly variable waterway conditions on free-flowing rivers and due to the large variety of inland ships. Today´s transport models, however, do not take these factors into account. This paper shows that dynamic fairway conditions, the ship’s amount of propulsion power, and the captain’s behaviour have a substantial impact on the attainable speed and fuel consumption of inland ships. This in turn has a significant impact on attainable sailing schedules and transportation cost, as we demonstrate through a case study for ships sailing on the Rhine-Danube corridor. We, therefore, conclude that there is a clear potential to improve the representation of inland waterway transport in freight models by modelling the effects of actual ship characteristics and waterway conditions at the micro-level.

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It is being increasingly recognized that sustainable port development requires an integrated planning approach which includes working with nature, a stakeholder inclusive design and co-creation of values, as well as an adaptive design that can cope with future uncertainties without losing its functionality. The multi-disciplinary character of port design whereby engineering, ecological, economic and governance aspects are integrated, makes the implementation of this approach very challenging. Not surprisingly, concrete examples of port projects incorporating and demonstrating these principles are rare. This paper proposes that pilot case studies would go a long way towards the acceptance and implementation of the approach. It discusses the desirable characteristics of pilot studies (with opportunities for creating economic value), which could establish the effectiveness of this approach for sustainable port design. The ongoing UDW project "Integrated and Sustainable Port Development in Ghana" funded by NWO-WOTRO exemplifies such an inclusive pilot study and represents a significant step in bringing about a paradigm shift from a traditional approach to port development, to a stakeholder inclusive integrated approach for sustainable port development.@en

This report, that serves as an advice report to PIANC InCom WG 179, addresses the optimal dimensions for inland waterway infrastructures as required for the efficient transport of continental pallet wide high cube 45 foot containers.@en

Provides a discussion on inland waterways, the historical development of the West European inland waterway transport system, and the requirements for the development of future proof inland waterway transport infrastructure.@en