Modern agile software projects are subject to constant change, making it essential to re-asses overall delay risk throughout the project life cycle. Existing effort estimation models are static and not able to incorporate changes occurring during project execution. In this paper, we propose a dynamic model for continuously predicting overall delay using delay patterns and Bayesian modeling. The model incorporates the context of the project phase and learns from changes in team performance over time. We apply the approach to real-world data from 4,040 epics and 270 teams at ING. An empirical evaluation of our approach and comparison to the state-of-the-art demonstrate significant improvements in predictive accuracy. The dynamic model consistently outperforms static approaches and the state-of-the-art, even during early project phases.@en

Late delivery of software projects and cost overruns have been common problems in the software industry for decades. Both problems are manifestations of deficiencies in effort estimation during project planning. With software projects being complex socio-technical systems, a large pool of factors can affect effort estimation and on-time delivery. To identify the most relevant factors and their interactions affecting schedule deviations in large-scale agile software development, we conducted a mixed-methods case study at ING: two rounds of surveys revealed a multitude of organizational, people, process, project and technical factors which were then quantified and statistically modeled using software repository data from 185 teams. We find that factors such as requirements refinement, task dependencies, organizational alignment and organizational politics are perceived to have the greatest impact on on-time delivery, whereas proxy measures such as project size, number of dependencies, historical delivery performance and team familiarity can help explain a large degree of schedule deviations. We also discover hierarchical interactions among factors: organizational factors are perceived to interact with people factors, which in turn impact technical factors. We compose our findings in the form of a conceptual framework representing influential factors and their relationships to on-time delivery. Our results can help practitioners identify and manage delay risks in agile settings, can inform the design of automated tools to predict schedule overruns and can contribute towards the development of a relational theory of software project management.

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In agile software development, proper team structures and effort estimates are crucial to ensure the on-time delivery of software projects. Delivery performance can vary due to the influence of changes in teams, resulting in team dynamics that remain largely unexplored. In this paper, we explore the effects of various aspects of teamwork on delays in software deliveries. We conducted a case study at ING and analyzed historical log data from 765,200 user stories and 571 teams to identify team factors characterizing delayed user stories. Based on these factors, we built models to predict the likelihood and duration of delays in user stories. The evaluation results show that the use of team-related features leads to a significant improvement in the predictions of delay, achieving on average 74%-82% precision, 78%-86% recall and 76%-84% F-measure. Moreover, our results show that team-related features can help improve the prediction of delay likelihood, while delay duration can be explained exclusively using them. Finally, training on recent user stories using a sliding window setting improves the predictive performance; our predictive models perform significantly better for teams that have been stable. Overall, our results indicate that planning in agile development settings can be significantly improved by incorporating team-related information and incremental learning methods into analysis/predictive models.@en

The appeal of delivering new features faster has led many software projects to adopt rapid releases. However, it is not well understood what the effects of this practice are. This paper presents an exploratory case study of rapid releases at ING, a large banking company that develops software solutions in-house, to characterize rapid releases. Since 2011, ING has shifted to a rapid release model. This switch has resulted in a mixed environment of 611 teams releasing relatively fast and slow. We followed a mixed-methods approach in which we conducted a survey with 461 participants and corroborated their perceptions with 2 years of code quality data and 1 year of release delay data. Our research shows that: rapid releases are more commonly delayed than their non-rapid counterparts, however, rapid releases have shorter delays; rapid releases can be beneficial in terms of reviewing and user-perceived quality; rapidly released software tends to have a higher code churn, a higher test coverage and a lower average complexity; challenges in rapid releases are related to managing dependencies and certain code aspects, e.g. design debt.@en