Aging is a multifaceted and intricate physiological process characterized by a gradual decline in functional capacity, leading to increased susceptibility to diseases and mortality. While chronological age serves as a strong risk factor for age-related health conditions, considerable heterogeneity exists in the aging trajectories of individuals, suggesting that biological age may provide a more nuanced understanding of the aging process. However, the concept of biological age lacks a clear operationalization, leading to the development of various biological age predictors without a solid statistical foundation. This paper addresses these limitations by proposing a comprehensive operationalization of biological age, introducing the “AccelerAge” framework for predicting biological age, and introducing previously underutilized evaluation measures for assessing the performance of biological age predictors. The AccelerAge framework, based on Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) models, directly models the effect of candidate predictors of aging on an individual’s survival time, aligning with the prevalent metaphor of aging as a clock. We compare predictors based on the AccelerAge framework to a predictor based on the GrimAge predictor, which is considered one of the best-performing biological age predictors, using simulated data as well as data from the UK Biobank and the Leiden Longevity Study. Our approach seeks to establish a robust statistical foundation for biological age clocks, enabling a more accurate and interpretable assessment of an individual’s aging status.

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Background
1H-NMR metabolomics and DNA methylation in blood are widely known biomarkers predicting age-related physiological decline and mortality yet exert mutually independent mortality and frailty signals.

Methods
Leveraging multi-omics data in four Dutch population studies (N = 5238, ∼40% of which male) we investigated whether the mortality signal captured by 1H-NMR metabolomics could guide the construction of DNA methylation-based mortality predictors.

Findings
We trained DNA methylation-based surrogates for 64 metabolomic analytes and found that analytes marking inflammation, fluid balance, or HDL/VLDL metabolism could be accurately reconstructed using DNA-methylation assays. Interestingly, a previously reported multi-analyte score indicating mortality risk (MetaboHealth) could also be accurately reconstructed. Sixteen of our derived surrogates, including the MetaboHealth surrogate, showed significant associations with mortality, independent of relevant covariates.

Interpretation
The addition of our metabolic analyte-derived surrogates to the well-established epigenetic clock GrimAge demonstrates that our surrogates potentially represent valuable mortality signal.

Funding
BBMRI-NL, X-omics, VOILA, Medical Delta, NWO, ERC.@en

1H-NMR metabolomics data is increasingly used to track health and disease. Nightingale Health, a major supplier of 1H-NMR metabolomics, has recently updated the quantification strategy to further align with clinical standards. Such updates, however, might influence backward replicability, particularly affecting studies with repeated measures. Using data from BBMRI-NL consortium (~28,000 samples from 28 cohorts), we compared Nightingale data, originally released in 2014 and 2016, with a re-quantified version released in 2020, of which both versions were based on the same NMR spectra. Apart from two discontinued and twenty-three new analytes, we generally observe a high concordance between quantification versions with 73 out of 222 (33%) analytes showing a mean ρ > 0.9 across all cohorts. Conversely, five analytes consistently showed lower Spearman’s correlations (ρ < 0.7) between versions, namely acetoacetate, LDL-L, saturated fatty acids, S-HDL-C, and sphingomyelins. Furthermore, previously trained multi-analyte scores, such as MetaboAge or MetaboHealth, might be particularly sensitive to platform changes. Whereas MetaboHealth replicated well, the MetaboAge score had to be retrained due to use of discontinued analytes. Notably, both scores in the re-quantified data recapitulated mortality associations observed previously. Concluding, we urge caution in utilizing different platform versions to avoid mixing analytes, having different units, or simply being discontinued.@en

The response to lifestyle intervention studies is often heterogeneous, especially in older adults. Subtle responses that may represent a health gain for individuals are not always detected by classical health variables, stressing the need for novel biomarkers that detect intermediate changes in metabolic, inflammatory, and immunity-related health. Here, our aim was to develop and validate a molecular multivariate biomarker maximally sensitive to the individual effect of a lifestyle intervention; the Personalized Lifestyle Intervention Status (PLIS). We used 1 H-NMR fasting blood metabolite measurements from before and after the 13-week combined physical and nutritional Growing Old TOgether (GOTO) lifestyle intervention study in combination with a fivefold cross-validation and a bootstrapping method to train a separate PLIS score for men and women. The PLIS scores consisted of 14 and four metabolites for females and males, respectively. Performance of the PLIS score in tracking health gain was illustrated by association of the sex-specific PLIS scores with several classical metabolic health markers, such as BMI, trunk fat%, fasting HDL cholesterol, and fasting insulin, the primary outcome of the GOTO study. We also showed that the baseline PLIS score indicated which participants respond positively to the intervention. Finally, we explored PLIS in an independent physical activity lifestyle intervention study, showing similar, albeit remarkably weaker, associations of PLIS with classical metabolic health markers. To conclude, we found that the sex-specific PLIS score was able to track the individual short-term metabolic health gain of the GOTO lifestyle intervention study. The methodology used to train the PLIS score potentially provides a useful instrument to track personal responses and predict the participant's health benefit in lifestyle interventions similar to the GOTO study.

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Scope: Abdominal obesity is one of the main modifiable risk factors of age-related cardiometabolic disease. Cardiometabolic disease risk and its associated high abdominal fat mass, cholesterol, and glucose concentrations can be reduced by a healthier lifestyle. Hence, the aim is to understand the relation between lifestyle-induced changes in body composition, and specifically abdominal fat, and accompanying changes in circulating metabolic biomarkers. Methods and results: Data from the Growing Old Together (GOTO) study was used, which is a single arm lifestyle intervention in which 164 older adults (mean age 63 years, BMI 23–35 kg/m²) changed their lifestyle during 13 weeks by 12.5% caloric restriction plus 12.5% increase in energy expenditure. It is shown here that levels of circulating metabolic biomarkers, even after adjustment for body mass index, specifically associate with abdominal fat mass. The applied lifestyle intervention mainly reduces abdominal fat mass (−2.6%, SD = 3.0) and this reduction, when adjusted for general weight loss, is highly associated with decreased circulating glycerol concentrations and increased HDL diameter. Conclusion: The lifestyle-induced reduction of abdominal fat mass is particularly associated, independent of body mass index or general weight loss, with decreased circulating glycerol concentrations and increased HDL diameter.

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