Purpose
The value of integrating clinical variables, radiomics, and tumor-derived cell-free DNA (cfDNA) for the prediction of survival and response to chemoradiation of patients with resectable esophageal adenocarcinoma is not yet known. Our aim was to investigate if radiomics and cfDNA metrics combined with clinical variables can improve personalized predictions.

Methods and Materials
A cohort of 111 patients with resectable esophageal adenocarcinoma from 2 centers treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiation therapy was used for exploratory retrospective analyses. Models combining the clinical variables of the SOURCE survival model with radiomic features and cfDNA were built using elastic net regression and internally validated using 5-fold cross-validation. Model performance for overall survival (OS) and time to progression (TTP) were evaluated with the C-index and the area under the curve for pathologic complete response.

Results
The best-performing baseline models for OS and TTP were based on the combination of SOURCE-cfDNA that reached a C-index of 0.55 and 0.59 compared with 0.44 to 0.45 with SOURCE alone. The addition of restaging positron emission tomography radiomics to SOURCE was the most promising addition for predicting OS (C-index: 0.65) and TTP (C-index: 0.60). Baseline risk stratification was achieved for OS and TTP by combining SOURCE with radiomics or cfDNA, log-rank P < .01. The best-performing combination model for the prediction of pathologic complete response reached an area under the curve of 0.61 compared with 0.47 with SOURCE variables alone.

Conclusions
The addition of radiomics and cfDNA can improve the performance of an established survival model. External validity needs to be further assessed in future studies together with the optimization of radiomic pipelines.@en

OBJECTIVE: In this pilot study, we investigated the feasibility of response prediction using digital [ 18 F]FDG PET/computed tomography (CT) and multiparametric MRI before, during, and after neoadjuvant chemoradiation therapy in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients and aimed to select the most promising imaging modalities and timepoints for further investigation in a larger trial. METHODS: Rectal cancer patients scheduled to undergo neoadjuvant chemoradiation therapy were prospectively included in this trial, and underwent multiparametric MRI and [ 18 F]FDG PET/CT before, 2 weeks into, and 6-8 weeks after chemoradiation therapy. Two groups were created based on pathological tumor regression grade, that is, good responders (TRG1-2) and poor responders (TRG3-5). Using binary logistic regression analysis with a cutoff value of P  ≤ 0.2, promising predictive features for response were selected. RESULTS: Nineteen patients were included. Of these, 5 were good responders, and 14 were poor responders. Patient characteristics of these groups were similar at baseline. Fifty-seven features were extracted, of which 13 were found to be promising predictors of response. Baseline [T2: volume, diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI): apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) mean, DWI: difference entropy], early response (T2: volume change, DWI: ADC mean change) and end-of-treatment presurgical evaluation MRI (T2: gray level nonuniformity, DWI: inverse difference normalized, DWI: gray level nonuniformity normalized), as well as baseline (metabolic tumor volume, total lesion glycolysis) and early response PET/CT (Δ maximum standardized uptake value, Δ peak standardized uptake value corrected for lean body mass), were promising features. CONCLUSION: Both multiparametric MRI and [ 18 F]FDG PET/CT contain promising imaging features to predict response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in LARC patients. A future larger trial should investigate baseline, early response, and end-of-treatment presurgical evaluation MRI and baseline and early response PET/CT.

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