Early systems change necessary for catalyzing long-term sustainability in a post-2030 agenda

Journal article (2022)

Authors

Enayat A. Moallemi Deakin University, School of Life and Environmental Sciences
Sibel Eker International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Radboud Universiteit Nijmegen
Lei Gao Oceans and Atmosphere
Michalis Hadjikakou Deakin University, School of Life and Environmental Sciences
Qi Liu Sichuan University, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
J.H. Kwakkel Policy Analysis - TPM
Patrick M. Reed Cornell University
Michael Obersteiner University of Oxford
Zhaoxia Guo Sichuan University
Brett A. Bryan Deakin University, School of Life and Environmental Sciences
Research Group
Policy Analysis (TPM) (TU Delft)
Copyright: © 2022 Enayat A. Moallemi, Sibel Eker, Lei Gao, Michalis Hadjikakou, Qi Liu, J.H. Kwakkel, Patrick M. Reed, Michael Obersteiner, Zhaoxia Guo, Brett A. Bryan
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2022.06.003
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Published Date

2022

Language

English

Faculty

Technology, Policy and Management

Department

Multi Actor Systems

Research Group

Policy Analysis

Abstract

Progress to date toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) has fallen short of expectations and is unlikely to fully meet 2030 targets. Past assessments have mostly focused on short- and medium-term evaluations, thus limiting the ability to explore the longer-term effects of systemic interactions with time lags and delay. Here we undertake global systems modeling with a longer-term view than previous assessments in order to explore the drivers of sustainability progress and how they could play out by 2030, 2050, and 2100 under different development pathways and quantitative targets. We find that early planning for systems change to shift from business as usual to more sustainable pathways is important for accelerating progress toward increasingly ambitious targets by 2030, 2050, and 2100. These findings indicate the importance of adopting longer-term timeframes and pathways to ensure that the necessary pre-conditions are in place for sustainability beyond the current 2030 Agenda.