Reconstructing illicit supply chains with sparse data

A simulation approach

Doctoral thesis (2025)

Authors

Isabelle M. van Schilt Policy Analysis - TPM

Contributors

A. Verbraeck Policy Analysis - TPM (supervisor)
J.H. Kwakkel Policy Analysis - TPM (supervisor)
Research Group
Policy Analysis (TPM) (TU Delft)
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Published Date

2025

Language

English

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Faculty

Technology, Policy and Management

Department

Multi Actor Systems

Research Group

Policy Analysis

Abstract

Even in this digital era, the data for improving supply chain visibility is often sparse due to the actors’ reluctance to share information or because of illicit activities. This dissertation demonstrates a simulation approach for reconstructing illicit supply chains with sparse data, that could help robust decision-making on effective interventions. We use a simulation calibration approach in combination with a ground truth simulation model of a stylized counterfeit Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) supply chain as case study.

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