Petri-net based cascading effect analysis of vapor cloud explosions

Journal article (2017)

Authors

J. Zhou Guangdong University of Technology
G.L.L.M.E. Reniers Safety and Security Science - TPM , Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Universiteit Antwerpen
Research Group
Safety and Security Science (TPM) (TU Delft)
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Published Date

2017

Language

English

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Faculty

Technology, Policy and Management

Department

Values Technology and Innovation

Research Group

Safety and Security Science

Abstract

In the chemical process industry, flammable gases are handled or stored in many production- or storage facilities. They can cause a vapor cloud explosion (VCE) accident if they come free from their containment and there is an ignition. A knock-on effect propagation from a primary VCE to one or more subsequent VCE(s) forms the cascading effect of VCEs. A new methodology of probabilistic Petri-net (PPN), which is an extension of Petri-net, is proposed to model the cascading effect and estimate the probabilities of escalation VCEs. The definition of what is a PPN is provided and three types of probabilistic relationships based on PPN are modeled. Further, the VCE cascading analysis approach based on Petri-net reasoning (execution of transitions) is discussed. The approach is illustrated by an example analyzing a VCE cascading effect in atmospheric tanks containing gasoline.

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