Improving Commercial Property Price Statistics

Abstract

Since the financial crisis of 2008, National Statistical Institutes (NSIs) have worked to develop commercial real estate (CRE) indicators for official statistics. These indicators are considered essential in financial stability monitoring and may help contain the consequences of future crises or even prevent future crises. However, progress at NSIs to develop these indicators has been slow due to challenges like low observation numbers and high heterogeneity. This dissertation addresses these challenges by exploring data issues and suggesting methodological improvements.

The first three studies focus on data challenges regarding share deals and portfolio sales. Both are real estate trading constructions that are specific to CRE. The results show that share deals and portfolio sales significantly differ from the rest of the market. Therefore, under specific circumstances, CRE indicators could benefit from including these trading types. The final two studies focus on methodological challenges regarding index construction methods and the role of sustainability in real estate pricing. The results show that, by combining established techniques, it is possible to construct price indices that meet official statistics’ standards. Furthermore, the results uncover a complex relationship between sustainability and prices: while energy efficiency generally involves price premiums, others aspects like health and environment display a discount for low sustainable properties.

Overall, this dissertation contributes to the legislative framework that is currently being developed for EU countries to publish official statistics for commercial real estate and adds to the academic discussion by presenting innovative techniques for data analyses and index construction.