Modeling and analyzing the environmental impact of short-to-medium range air and ground transports

Abstract

The emissions of the transport sector inside the EU-27 have risen by 33 % between 1990 and 2019. A modal shift from unsustainable transport towards more environmentally friendly transport modes can be taken as one solution to mitigate the overall emission of the transport sector. In this paper, multiple open-source models and databases are utilized to compare travel emissions and time of air travel and various ground transport options, including car, bus, and rail. Compared with previous research that relies on closed-sourced or hand-collected data to extract public ground transportation routes information, this paper utilizes the openly accessible General Transit Feed Specification(GTFS) database, facilitating the calculation at a large scale inside EU-27. 820 pairs of routes between popular 41 city centers inside EU-27 are selected for comparison. The results consistently demonstrate that air travel always produces higher emissions per passenger than rail and bus travel for all routes. Emissions from cars are significantly influenced by occupancy rates and the type of vehicle fuel. The emissions from a single person in a petrol/diesel car can exceed those from air travel. However, if four people travel in a hybrid electric or electric vehicle, the per-passenger emission can be similar to rail. Among all public transport, the rail is the most competitive one to replace air travel by offering passengers similar travel time and reducing emissions. The trade-off factor between emissions and time is also investigated on its effect on the passenger route choice decision. In addition, this paper offers insights into the development of emission models and provides recommendations for various stakeholders.