African heritage sites threatened as sea-level rise accelerates

Journal article (2022)

Authors

Michalis I. Vousdoukas European Commission Joint Research Centre
Joanne Clarke University of East Anglia
Roshanka Ranasinghe University of Twente, Coastal Engineering - CEG , IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, Deltares
Lena Reimann Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Nadia Khalaf University of Exeter
M.T. Duong Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk - CEG , University of Twente, Deltares, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education
Birgitt Ouweneel University of Cape Town
Salma Sabour University of Southampton
Carley E. Iles Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo (CICERO), Université de Versailles St-Quentin
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Research Group
Coastal Engineering (CEG) (TU Delft)
Copyright: © 2022 Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Joanne Clarke, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Lena Reimann, Nadia Khalaf, M.T. Duong, Birgitt Ouweneel, Salma Sabour, Carley E. Iles, More Authors
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01280-1
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Published Date

2022

Language

English

Faculty

Civil Engineering & Geosciences

Department

Hydraulic Engineering

Research Group

Coastal Engineering

Abstract

The African coast contains heritage sites of ‘Outstanding Universal Value’ that face increasing risk from anthropogenic climate change. Here, we generated a database of 213 natural and 71 cultural African heritage sites to assess exposure to coastal flooding and erosion under moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Currently, 56 sites (20%) are at risk from a 1-in-100-year coastal extreme event, including the iconic ruins of Tipasa (Algeria) and the North Sinai Archaeological Sites Zone (Egypt). By 2050, the number of exposed sites is projected to more than triple, reaching almost 200 sites under high emissions. Emissions mitigation from RCP 8.5 to RCP 4.5 reduces the number of very highly exposed sites by 25%. These findings highlight the urgent need for increased climate change adaptation for heritage sites in Africa, including governance and management approaches, site-specific vulnerability assessments, exposure monitoring, and protection strategies.