Probabilistic assessments of flood defence performance subject to induced seismicity

Journal article (2018)

Authors

R.B. Jongejan Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk - CEG , Jongejan Risk Management Consulting
Nelleke Zuideveld-Venema Waterschap Noorderzijlvest
Sjoerd de Wit Shell Global Solutions International B.V.
Hans Huissoon Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij BV
Research Group
Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk (CEG) (TU Delft)
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Published Date

2018

Language

English

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Faculty

Civil Engineering & Geosciences

Department

Hydraulic Engineering

Research Group

Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk

Abstract

Gas extraction in the Groningen Province in the Netherlands has caused seismicity. A method was needed for probabilistic assessments of the seismic performance of the levees that protect low-lying polders against flooding. By combining the First Order Reliability Method with response surfaces it proved possible to strongly reduce the required number of simulations with advanced numerical models to obtain reliable failure probability estimates. To illustrate the workings of the method, an application to a levee cross-section along the Eemscanal with a sheet pile wall is presented. The probabilistic method can be used for probabilistic assessments and the probability-based calibration of partial factors, and it could serve as a starting point for quantitative risk analyses for levee systems in earthquake prone regions.

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