Modeling, Design, Analysis, and Control of a Spot Market for Hydrogen

An Application of Economic Circuit Theory

Master thesis (2024)

Authors

P.E. van den Berkmortel Mechanical Engineering

Contributors

M.B. Mendel Team Bart De Schutter - Mechanical, Maritime and Materials Engineering (mentor)
C. Hutters Team Bart De Schutter - Mechanical, Maritime and Materials Engineering (graduation committee member)
Faculty
Mechanical Engineering, Mechanical Engineering
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Published Date

03-07-2024

Language

English

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Faculty

Mechanical Engineering

Abstract

In this thesis, we demonstrate the potential of economic circuit theory for the modeling, design, analysis, and control of a spot market for hydrogen. Spot prices are expected to be significantly more volatile than the current marginal-cost-plus pricing schemes and new methods are required to model the dynamics of price as it reacts to fluctuations in supply and demand.

To model such dynamic pricing, we use recently developed economic circuit theory, a subfield of economic engineering where markets are modeled as electrical circuits. We model market agents, including production operators, storage facilities, market makers, and industry clusters, as analogous electrical components. We structure their interactions in an economic network that reflects the flow of hydrogen through the backbone and the balancing of price-driving incentives among the market agents.

We design three economic networks: a core network and two extensions. The core network incorporates a renewable wind-hydrogen supply chain, a low-carbon hydrogen supply chain, and imports of gaseous and liquid hydrogen. One extension divides the hydrogen spot market into renewable and low-carbon segments, and the other integrates an ammonia market. We implement and simulate the networks in MATLAB Simulink.

We analyze the networks' dynamics using dynamic scenario analyses, a technique within economic circuit theory. This permits us to quantify the dynamic resilience of the market under supply disruptions and demand extensions; in particular, we use overshoot and settling time as metrics for the volatility and recovery of stocks, prices, and hydrogen supply. In addition, we establish how wind variability generates a ripple effect that impacts the dynamics across the coupled commodity markets.

In conclusion, we model and analyze a market design that includes intervention by a regulatory agency. Specifically, we design a PID controller to implement a subsidized price-settlement system. We demonstrate that such a controller effectively mitigates excessive spot price levels, reduces price volatility, and secures the supply of hydrogen.