Progradation Speed of Tide-Dominated Tidal Flats Decreases Stronger Than LinearlyWith Decreasing Sediment Availability and LinearlyWith Sea Level Rise

Abstract

We use the results of a one-dimensional morphodynamic model and the basis of the “Lagrangian equilibrium state” (Maan et al., 2015, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JF003311) to derive a quantitative relationship between the progradation speed of tidal flats and the suspended sediment concentration in their adjacent waters and show that the speed increases more than linearly with the concentration. We also show that horizontally prograding flats rise vertically with sea level rise at the expense of their horizontal speed via a linear relationship. If accretion rates are insufficient to keep up with sea level rise, however, the intertidal flat submerges and retreats landward at the same time. We apply the obtained relationships to the Yangtze Estuary to estimate the critical sediment concentration level below which a shift from progradation to retreat can be expected.